MANIFOLD
Will the "Best Animal" be an extinct animal?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ390
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
NO

Resolves according to this market:

  • Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether the "Best Animal" is extinct at the time of resolution of the linked market, not whether it becomes extinct at any point in the future.

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Orcas and elephants tied for best animal. Both extant. Resolution NO.

If they were so smart and strong they wouldn’t have gone extinct. Ha!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Sounds like a challenge

The best animals don't go extinct

@yako what a beauteh

That would be sad

@1bets ???

are you a clanker???

what are you talking about???

@121

oh, do you mean be extinct at the time of its resolution? my bad lol I thought you mean become extinct at some time! lol

@No_uh yes, extinct at the time of resolution.

you should consider using our very own @ConservationForecasts 's markets for this resolution. Link the resolution of this to any or all of the subspecies which have markets in them already!

edit: https://manifold.markets/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-orc?r=Tm9fdWg Orca

https://manifold.markets/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-afr-PgR2SgsyId?r=Tm9fdWg African Savannah Elephant

Will the wild population of the Orca (​​Orcinus orca) become extinct by 2100?
11% chance. This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Orca, aka Killer Whale, a species that was classified as Data Deficient for the IUCN Red List in 2017. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Orca persists. For more information about the species, see: IUCN assessment Wikipedia For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including captive individuals: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-orca-aka-killer-whale-orci?play=true)

@No_uh doesn't apply to this market, as you discovered, but appreciate the headsup nonetheless. Interesting markets

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