Manifold plays hangman!
84
1kṀ13k
resolved Feb 25
Resolved
NO
E
Resolved
NO
A
Resolved
YES
I
Resolved
YES
N
Resolved
YES
G
Resolved
NO
R
Resolved
NO
D
Resolved
NO
L
Resolved
NO
Z
Resolved
NO
Y
Resolved
NO
X
Resolved
NO
W
Resolved
NO
V
Resolved
NO
U
Resolved
YES
T
Resolved
NO
S
Resolved
NO
Q
Resolved
NO
P
Resolved
NO
O
Resolved
YES
M

Word:_i_ing

timing

Incorrect guesses:6/6:

E,A,R,D,L,K

The banner art might not be up to date!

Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.

Resolution Criteria

  • Every day, at ~8am UTC+1 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.

  • Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.

  • I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.

  • The game concludes when either:

    1. The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)

    2. The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)

  • Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.

  • If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.

Considerations

  • The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).

  • I obviously won't bet on this market.

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The hardest I've ever fought for mana in my life. Good game.

@Quroe were we fighting for mana or to get the man out of the noose

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I was a hero for hire. A mana mercenary. An undertaker of the undersigned.

"K" is wrong, the word was "timing", the MD5 hash came from: timingthisisntpartoftheanswer

I'd like to thank all of you that helped me improve this market!

I knew we should have done T...

@SimonWestlake good thing this is a prediction market so if you knew, you bought T and made a lot of Mana :P

@Wott True, I pushed T above D at one point

Like I said. If we choose X we are left with a coin toss between fixing and mixing.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Since we can’t make any more mistakes, we’re no longer choosing between letters; we’re now just choosing what word we think is most likely

@JimHays good thinking

@JimHays This is wrong. We could have still targeted multiple words at this stage by guessing either P or M. E.g. if M is right we win if the word is MIMING, and get another guess if it is, e.g. TIMING.

@JimHays kills me that it was in fact timing lol

Actually M would have let us target three words as a last guess, since we could also have still gotten MIXING with a distinct pattern from either MIMING or TIMING. Whoops!

Feb 24th (Day 9)

Word State

_ I _ I N G

Guesses

5 out of 6 incorrect guesses:

E ❌ A ❌ I ✅ N ✅ G ✅ R ❌ D ❌ L ❌

Art

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Possible Words (41 total)

timing citing hiking mixing fixing wiping viking biting biking piping sizing siting miming kiting jiving wising vibing yijing wiking miking vising jibing yiming yixing ximing siming tiying piking hising witing wiving cising hiving vicing miting wifing siking siping sixing fifing fiking

Win Probability

/GastonKessler/will-manifold-win-at-hangman

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 10% order

V, our poster child for VIKING, JIVING, and VIBING.

@Quroe v for victory or vendetta?

There is no "L".

@GastonKessler I think you'll find there is. After two more letters lol

@JussiVilleHeiskanen 1 strike to go.

opened a Ṁ3 YES at 37% order

Currently 69 Traders playing Hangmanifold.

How did we not think of this name earlier?

Fair disclosure. I have a NO position on will manifold win, so you should keep in mind I could be sabotaging

@JussiVilleHeiskanen halo announcer voice: BETRAYAL

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Sabotage is fair play. Just make sure you can profit.

@Quroe I am not, but if I were you I would keep an open mind.

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