Manifold plays hangman! #2 [500M prize]
25
650Ṁ2167
Jun 20
63%
A
18%
B
14%
C
18%
D
8%
F
15%
G
15%
H
17%
I
4%
J
12%
K
27%
L
14%
M
21%
N
28%
O
14%
P
2%
Q
23%
S
25%
T
20%
U
6%
V

Word:_ _ _ _ e r

Incorrect guesses:0/6:

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Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.

Resolution Criteria

  • Every day, at ~8am UTC+2 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.

  • Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.

  • I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.

  • The game concludes when either:

    1. The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)

    2. The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)

  • Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.

  • If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.

Considerations

  • The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).

  • I obviously won't bet on this market.

The MD5 hash obtained when combining the word and an unknown string of characters that I will resolve at the end of this market is: 0a674752f3830233c5270aa1430a8f7a

Linked markets:

https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-manifold-win-at-hangman-2?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 YES

Using a hangman solver shows that A is the best bet for the third guess

opened a Ṁ2 YES at 2% order

😁

@4fa XD I'll do it if I do a third one.

@4fa that just sounds like a call for action

Well you were right again, there is indeed a "r"

Lol love this. Can you put a space between the underscores like this:
_ _ _ _ e _
just so it's a tad easier to see/think about the word/letters

The fifth letter is an "e'!

reposted

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