Word:_ i l v e r
Incorrect guesses:3/6:
D,A,B
The banner art might not be up to date!
Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.
Resolution Criteria
Every day, at ~8am UTC+2 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.
Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.
I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.
The game concludes when either:
The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)
The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)
Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.
If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.
Considerations
The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).
I obviously won't bet on this market.
The MD5 hash obtained when combining the word and an unknown string of characters that I will resolve at the end of this market is: 0a674752f3830233c5270aa1430a8f7a
Linked markets:
https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-manifold-win-at-hangman-2?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 500 Mana prize mentioned in the title is awarded based on participation in the linked market: who-will-win-at-hangman. To be eligible for the prize, you may need to post your guess in that market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ424 | |
| 2 | Ṁ131 | |
| 3 | Ṁ117 | |
| 4 | Ṁ106 | |
| 5 | Ṁ50 |
@GastonKessler Where in the word does the newly resolved letter appear? 🤔
picker
wincer
jitter
jigger
linker
ginger
kilter
pincer
winker
hipper
limmer
gipper
filler
wicker
jilter
pinker
nipper
fisher
pinger
filmer
zither
lipper
cither
milker
finger
pilfer
zinger
tipper
jimper
fizzer
simper
killer
ticker
niffer
cipher
kicker
winger
limper
nicker
zipper
livyer
kipper
licker
jinker
hinger
mincer
sicker
simmer
sipper
higher
are all the remaining possible words.
@121 If you're using this hangman solver, just know that it only shows 50 out of potentially more words
Well @mods this market has been unranked again, if you have done it, could you please explain why, and if you haven't, why is it being set to "unranked"?
This market is listed, not self-referential (the order of resolution is self-referential, but it doesn't affect the resolution of each letter), it isn't random or about leagues, I am the only one knowing the answers, but I don't bet on this market and have provided a MD5 hash to clarify my honesty, this market is very much predicting something and it will resolve within two weeks.
@GastonKessler Perhaps the issue is that someone could bet in this market to influence the likelihood that the "Will Manifold Win?" market resolves YES?
@BoltonBailey although this market shouldn't be the one getting unranked, as it is the other one that has an influencable resolution.
The guidelines are (by design) somewhat broad/up to interpretation, but:
"Market is self-referential"
is referring to cases like this. I.e. how does it resolve?
Every day, at ~8am UTC+2 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.
I.e. it resolves based on the trading activity within the market itself, rather than predicting something else.
it's a slightly trickier case because whether the answer resolves YES or NO is technically predetermined by the hidden word. but still, i'd say the trading in this market is inherently self-referential, because people can influence how things resolve (in this case, when they resolve). if you feel strongly about this you can talk to david about the guidelines & get a higher-up ruling, they are not intended to handle every new case, but i would personally side with @shankypanky 's instincts here and say this market feels pretty unranked to me.
@Ziddletwix In that case, I'm ok with it being unranked, I just wanted a clear ruling as to why it couldn't be ranked, thank you!
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think for that you have to post your guess in the other market: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
