Anyone could jump in with 112 $M right now to swing the implied probability to 49%, so it stands to reason that even as market volume increases, a whale could jump in and easily rail the implied probability down well below 50% at the last minute.

(note: this is almost a copy of a previous question I made, but when I made that I didn't know I had paid M$100 to start it, and didn't want to subsidize the market as much as I did)

This will resolve YES if after 1 week, the implied probability is greater than 50%, and NO otherwise.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ786
2		Ṁ186
3		Ṁ40
4		Ṁ17
5		Ṁ16

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