There is an ongoing volcanic eruption in Iceland. Will this eruption disrupt air travel, like the one in 2010?
This market includes air travel going to and from Iceland. The site of the volcano is less than 20 miles away from the main international airport. For a market that only looks at travel outside of Iceland, see https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-there-be-a-disruption-to-air-t?r=R2FicmllbGxl
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EasyJet passengers from Keflavik International Airport arrived back in the UK five hours late
Flights in and out of Iceland’s main airport have been affected by a much-anticipated volcanic eruption.
For six weeks the Icelandic authorities have been monitoring seismic activity close to Keflavik airport, a major North Atlantic aviation hub.
The eruption is around 10 miles southwest of the airport and northeast of the town of Grindavik – whose 4,000 inhabitants were evacuated as a precaution.
But "like 2010" in description makes me think this might well still resolve no
Icelandic Air confirmed the volcanic eruption had no impact on flight schedules.
"The eruption does have a very minimal effect the operations of Icelandair or Keflavík Airport," Icelandic Air said.
@mattyb literal insider trading.
I'm just trading based on some throwaway statements I read a few weeks ago that it probably won't disrupt air travel.
@chrisjbillington i’ve been on the wrong side of the ledger enough times to learn that when the person in first place starts shrinking my profits, I flip
@chrisjbillington The strikes are only between 4 am and 10 am GMT, and I don't think a disruption of 6 hours is very likely, but if there's sufficient reporting that it would definitely have disrupted travel, I'd count that. I don't want to try to deduce this myself though, so I'd require some outside source that stated it.
Right now, my main source is the Keflavík Airport website, at https://www.isavia.is/en/keflavik-airport, which currently states:
The volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula (Reykjanesskagi) has started. The principal information on the eruption can be found on the website of the Civil Protection Department and the website of the Icelandic Meteorological Office.
At the moment, there are no disruptions to arrivals or departures at Keflavík Airport.
@Gabrielle Ah, it wasn't a serious question, but appreciate it! I think that's reasonable.
I just like pointing out how hard it is to write resolution criteria given all the corner cases that can happen.
@chrisjbillington Honestly I should have thought about this one, the Icelandic unions do love to strike, especially ones that are tourist facing since it gives them a lot of leverage.
Manifold, speculate away
But this seems like quite an explosion in the early stages. But you don't know anything yet. It's going to be a long night.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-icelands-volcano-erupts-spitting-31704172.amp