Background:

Following PLAY’s collapse in September 2025, Iceland’s international scheduled air transport market is dominated by Icelandair. Historically, Iceland has seen periodic attempts to establish additional Icelandic carriers (e.g., WOW Air, PLAY, Niceair) with mixed success. Iceland’s tourism-driven market and transatlantic positioning create recurring incentives for new entrants, but economic and competitive pressures have caused frequent airline failures.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if all the following conditions are met:

1. New Icelandic Airline:
   

   • The airline did not operate any scheduled commercial passenger flights from or to Iceland on or before 1 November 2025, and

   • The airline is Icelandic, evidenced by at least one of:
     a) Holding an Icelandic Air Operator Certificate (AOC), or
     b) Being majority Icelandic-owned and marketing itself as an Icelandic carrier.

3. International Scheduled Service:
   

   • The airline must operate (not merely schedule or announce) at least one international scheduled commercial passenger flight to or from an Icelandic airport (e.g., KEF, AEY) on or before 31 December 2026.

   • The flight must be bookable by the general public under the airline’s own brand.

5. Nature of Operation:
   

   • The service must be publicly timetabled, recurring, and sold as a scheduled route. A single one-off positioning flight does not qualify.

Exclusions:

The following do not qualify:

• Domestic-only airlines without international service.

• Charter-only, seasonal charter, ad-hoc, or ACMI/wet-lease operations unless the flight is operated and sold under the new Icelandic airline’s own brand.

• Rebrands, restructurings, or successor entities to former Icelandic airlines (e.g., a revival of PLAY or WOW Air) unless a new AOC is issued.

• Cargo-only services.

Evidence for Resolution:

Resolution will be based on publicly verifiable information. Suitable sources include:

• Icelandic Transport Authority (ICETRA) AOC and route announcements: https://www.icetra.is/

• Isavia and Icelandic airport route announcements: https://www.isavia.is/

• Airline press releases, official websites, and booking platforms

• Reputable aviation industry sources (e.g., Aviation Week, ch-aviation, Simple Flying)