Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaches either $50 per barrel or $100 per barrel at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to NO if WTI crude oil prices remain between $50 and $100 throughout this period.

Resolution will be based on the official daily settlement price as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), CME Group, or other reputable financial data sources.

Background

WTI crude oil is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing and is the underlying commodity of the New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contracts. As of March 2025, WTI crude oil prices have been trading in the $70-$80 range.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that WTI spot prices will average around $70.62 per barrel in 2025, suggesting prices are expected to remain well above $50. Most analyst predictions for 2025 range between $69 and $73 per barrel, though these forecasts can change based on market conditions.

Considerations

Oil prices are highly volatile and can be significantly affected by:

• Geopolitical tensions and conflicts

• OPEC+ production decisions

• Global economic growth or recession

• Changes in U.S. shale oil production

• Unexpected supply disruptions

• Shifts in energy transition policies

While current forecasts suggest prices will remain in the $60-$80 range, unexpected events could push prices toward either extreme.