Will @IsaacKing buy more than one million mana (worth 10,000 USD) before the Whales vs. Minnows market resolves? It had been hypothesized that buying mana will be one of the ways that he can make the market resolve in his favor.
The mana must be purchased directly from Manifold, but it can be purchased through a way that isn't normally available (such as writing them a check, doing a bank transfer, or delivering them cash in person).
The mana does not need to be used on the Whales vs. Minnows market; it just needs to be bought before that market resolves. For that timing, see the Whales vs. Minnows market.
2023-04-14: Clarification: If Isaac buys the mana for less than 10,000 USD, because of a bulk discount, this still resolves based on the quantity of mana. However, if he receives the mana for free or at an insane discount (such as for only 100 USD) then it will resolve NO.
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@KyleWan or could have sold any number of liquid investments, in general "can he access $10k" when he stated he spent $100k on pretty cardboard resolves to yes, I think
@chinmay If their probabilities are wrong then others can turn a profit by correcting them.
@IsaacKing if for example almost everyone who looks at the secondary market is an investor in the main market, then it's not clear that they are better off correcting the market, because it might expose them further to the downside of the main market. And I think this main market is currently popular enough that this might be the case! But yes, in the long run, enough disinterested parties will see it and correct it.