Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member. Will that occur?
Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025. Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member. This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders.
Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification:
An incursion or seizure of even a limited part of a NATO member’s territory (for example, a small part of Latvia) will resolve as a yes if it is on a scale comparable to significant military actions (such as the 2014 Crimean war or, as noted, an incursion similar to Ukraine’s invasion into the Kursk region).
1,000The current probabilities imply a 10% chance of Russia invading if Trump is the president, and a 17% chance of Trump is not the president.
@BoltonBailey I don't know of one, but I haven't really looked and I'd be happy to pin this to resolve based on one if anyone would like to suggest one.
This is partly inspired by this Noah Smith article
So if Trump gets elected and Russia is able to conquer the rest of Ukraine, expect the Baltic states to be next. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are small countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, and would offer Putin access to the Baltic Sea. They have tiny populations, and their only real defense is their NATO membership. With NATO defunct, Putin would roll over them. And NATO’s lack of ability to defend its member states would destroy the alliance forever.