Trump has made repeated statements along the lines of
“You won’t have to (vote) anymore. Four more years. You know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians. I love you, Christians,” Trump said at the event, hosted by the conservative group Turning Point Action. “You gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again — we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”
and
You have to vote on November 5th. After that, you don't have to worry about voting anymore. I don't care because we're going to fix the -- the country will be fixed and we won't even need your vote anymore because frankly, we will have such love, if you don't want to vote anymore, that's okay.
Will Trump follow through on these promises for the 2028 election?
Obviously this is vague, so resolves based on my judgment, but I will generally look at whether or not the 2028 election is set up in a way such that Trump supporters will achieve their objectives without needing to vote. Some clear examples would be the 2028 election not occurring, or there being a >95% chance of Republicans winning according to sources such as 538, Nate Silver, or prediction markets. In a general sense, having elections like Russia or North Korea would also make this resolve YES.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected in 2024.
1,000
3.00Basically, I agree with Tyler Cowen.
But since it's rude to leave a naked link, I'll point out that every politician has told their supporters that $CurrentYear is the most important election of their lifetimes, or at least for a long while. "Vote now and you won't have to vote later" is just another way of saying "If you're going to vote for just one election in your lifetime, make it this one."
And Trump did clarify that he's not going to be an autocrat. 3:08 in the Ingraham interview:
Ingraham: So they do all that, and then they say, well, you can't vote for him because he's literally never going to leave office. They're actually still saying that.
Trump: It's just unbelievable.
Ingraham: But you will leave office after four years.
Trump: Of course. By the way, and I did last time. I kept hearing, he's not going to leave, he's not going to leave. Look, they are the ones that are a threat to democracy.
There’s not a clear line here, since the future is vague and Trump’s statements were vague. It doesn’t need to be a situation in which Trump achieves all of his goals, but it would probably need to be a situation in which Trump/his successors are almost certain to win upcoming elections and gain more political power, and that this is likely to be the case regardless of who votes for whom.