Will a frontier LLM be broadly released during 2025 that will not be available in the EU for 90 days afterwards? This question tries to asses the impact of the EU AI Act on the availability of models in the EU.

As an example, the Sora release was delayed in the EU (TechCrunch, heise), with Sam Altman tweeting "... generally expect us for new products to have delayed launches in europe, and that there may be some we just can't offer."

Llama4 is also (legally) not available in the EU (decoder).

Current frontier models would include GPT-5, Claude 4, Gemini 2.5, Grok 4. Sora would not be included as it isn't a LLM. Llama 4 would not count due to not being frontier. The IMO version of Gemini deep think would not count, as it is not broadly released, Gemini deep think would count.

The model should not be usable by EU citizents. It would have to be unavailable over both API and consumer apps like ChatGPT. In the case of an open source frontier model, a clause in the license would probably not be enough, as it can be easily ignored and be used by consumers in the EU.

I will not bet on this market.