David Charles Grusch, a former member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force run by the Office of Naval Intelligence, has made substantial allegations that the US government possesses non-human technology and materials. He further alleges that the Intelligence Community has intentionally withheld classified evidence of "intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin" and fragments "of exotic origin (non-human intelligence, whether extraterrestrial or unknown origin)" from congressional oversight. This has led to an ongoing investigation in response to his whistleblower complaint.
On the other hand, the Department of Defense has stated that the Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group (AARO) has not found any information substantiating claims of any programs related to the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials. They, however, assured their commitment to following the data and the investigation wherever it may lead.
This prediction market seeks to speculate on whether David Charles Grusch's claims will be substantiated by December 31, 2023. The resolution of this market will be based on official reports or statements from the authorities involved in the investigation, such as the Office of Naval Intelligence, AARO, or any other relevant government body.
For the purpose of this market, 'substantiated' will mean that the claims made by Grusch are officially confirmed as true in part or in full by the investigating authorities.
This is a YES or NO market.
YES: The authorities have officially confirmed that some or all of Grusch's claims are true by December 31, 2023.
NO: The authorities have not confirmed Grusch's claims, have refuted them, or have not released any statement regarding the claims by December 31, 2023.
In the event of ambiguous or contradictory statements from different authorities, the market creator will make the final decision based on the preponderance of the evidence.
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@FranklinBaldo where is the quote from? - I haven't read any response to the article by the DoD:
the Department of Defense has stated that the Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group (AARO) has not found any information substantiating claims of any programs related to the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials. They, however, assured their commitment to following the data and the investigation wherever it may lead.
I think it's just facially implausible that you could have what would stretch to several hundred thousand people across the planet engaged in some sort of cold war for alien tech without any better evidence than this leaking. Governments can barely keep much less explosive secrets than this with far fewer people involved.
@RobinGreen Correct. If we assume they are true, in that situation we would know from historical experience that there are people who are extremely good at making sure that such information does not get released. Thus we should assume that even this report was an unusual event, and we should expect reversion to the mean. Therefore nothing will come of it in any case.