What will be the most important US political fact in 2022?
18
920Ṁ1931resolved Jan 1
100%93%
FBI execute search warrant at Trump's Mar-a-Lago
0.4%Other
0.1%
Trump indictment
0.1%
The (public) rise of Christian Nationalism
1.9%
Repeal of Roe v Wade
0.0%
The threat of Chinese invasion of Taiwan
0.4%
Democrats losing control of the House
0.0%
Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmation for Supreme Court
1.7%
Trump becomes US President.
0.2%
Democrats losing the Senate
0.2%
A newly split Congress
0.0%
Raphael Warnock beats Trump pick Herschel Walker in Georgia Senate runoff
0.0%
Trump Organization convicted in N.Y. criminal tax fraud trial
0.0%
Twitter is no longer enforcing its Covid misinformation policy
0.8%
Amber Heard Found Liable for Damages Against Johnny Depp
0.5%
DeSantis wave in FL vs Trump endorsed candidates elsewhere
0.1%
Queen Elizabeth II, has died
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ317 | |
| 2 | Ṁ280 |
People are also trading
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Will the top two candidates for the US 2028 election call the 2028 election "the most important"
46% chance
What will happen first in a U.S. Presidential election.
Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027
55% chance
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2032?
Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
64% chance
Sort by:
@ahalekelly But a third party will not add much information to the world. (if a ranking like this exists, it already be done anyway..).
@FranklinBaldo sure, the third party annual rankings already exist, but only retrospectively after the year is over. A market to predict what the ranking will be while events are still happening adds significant information to the world.
Or you could just pick the most important fact based on your personal judgement.
@FranklinBaldo You could also treat it as a poll, and count up how many people bet on each option, but that is labor intensive.
People are also trading
Related questions
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Will the top two candidates for the US 2028 election call the 2028 election "the most important"
46% chance
What will happen first in a U.S. Presidential election.
Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027
55% chance
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2032?
Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
64% chance