What will be the most important US political fact in 2022?
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0.1%
Trump indictment
0.1%
The (public) rise of Christian Nationalism
1.9%
Repeal of Roe v Wade
0.0%
The threat of Chinese invasion of Taiwan
0.4%
Democrats losing control of the House
0.0%
Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmation for Supreme Court
1.7%
Trump becomes US President.
93%
FBI execute search warrant at Trump's Mar-a-Lago
0.2%
Democrats losing the Senate
0.2%
A newly split Congress
0.0%
Raphael Warnock beats Trump pick Herschel Walker in Georgia Senate runoff
0.0%
Trump Organization convicted in N.Y. criminal tax fraud trial
0.0%
Twitter is no longer enforcing its Covid misinformation policy
0.8%
Amber Heard Found Liable for Damages Against Johnny Depp
0.5%
DeSantis wave in FL vs Trump endorsed candidates elsewhere
0.1%
Queen Elizabeth II, has died
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@ahalekelly But a third party will not add much information to the world. (if a ranking like this exists, it already be done anyway..).
@FranklinBaldo sure, the third party annual rankings already exist, but only retrospectively after the year is over. A market to predict what the ranking will be while events are still happening adds significant information to the world.
Or you could just pick the most important fact based on your personal judgement.
@FranklinBaldo You could also treat it as a poll, and count up how many people bet on each option, but that is labor intensive.
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