Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, credible evidence indicates that OpenAI's transition to a for-profit structure was intentionally designed to provoke a debate on artificial general intelligence (AGI) governance prior to the development of AGI. Such evidence may include, but is not limited to:

• Official statements from OpenAI executives or board members explicitly stating this intent.

• Internal communications or documents that reveal a deliberate strategy to incite AGI governance discussions through the for-profit shift.

• Public disclosures or interviews where OpenAI representatives acknowledge this motive.

If no such evidence is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

OpenAI, initially established as a nonprofit organization in 2015, aimed to develop AGI that benefits humanity. In 2019, it restructured into a "capped-profit" model to attract necessary capital while maintaining its mission. In December 2024, OpenAI proposed converting its for-profit arm into a public benefit corporation (PBC), a move that sparked significant debate regarding its commitment to ethical AI development and governance. (arstechnica.com)

Critics, including former employees and AI experts, have expressed concerns that this shift could prioritize profit over safety and ethical considerations. Some have called for regulatory intervention to ensure that OpenAI's actions align with its original mission. (time.com)

The question at hand is whether OpenAI's for-profit transition was a strategic decision intended to stimulate discourse on AGI governance before AGI's realization.

Considerations

• Intent vs. Outcome: Distinguishing between OpenAI's intentions and the outcomes of its structural changes is crucial. The market resolves based on intentional design, not incidental effects.

• Evidence Standards: Only credible, verifiable evidence will be considered. Speculative or anecdotal information will not suffice for resolution.

• Time Frame: The resolution is contingent upon evidence available up to December 31, 2025. Developments after this date will not influence the market's outcome.

Traders should monitor official OpenAI communications, reputable news sources, and statements from key stakeholders for relevant information.