What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
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16
Ṁ7351
2033
1%
2023
3%
2024
48%
2025
12%
2026
9%
2027
6%
2028
5%
2029
4%
2030
4%
2031
3%
2032
6%
not by 2032

This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/

I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC). Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.

This resolves "not by 2032" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032. It will also resolve "not by 2032" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.

This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).

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relevant individual markets:

And here is a market to bet on the time difference between this market and AI getting gold without requiring a formalized proof:

Related market for an AI winning a gold medal that doesn't necessarily produce a machine-checkable proof:

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