Bad news - you fell into a coma today. You wake up on January 20, 2025 and (for whatever reason) have no access to information about the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election, but would like to figure out which party won solely by looking at financial market data.

You only have access to today's prices (the day you sadly took coma) and the prices on the day you woke up, as the Presidential inauguration is imminent.

You can look at and choose from any publicly traded instruments - stocks, indexes, options, futures, bonds, commodities, interest rates, forex, crypto, etc. But you can't see prediction markets, forecasting platforms or any other non-regulated instruments.

You may construct any comparisons necessary to inform your decision (e.g. the outperformance of one (or more) instrument(s) over another during the course of your incapacitation), but must specify how you would construct the evaluation function in your answer.

Your answer should take the form of (for example): If Stock XYZ's percentage gain between now and inauguration day is greater than x%, then [Party] won. But of course it can be far more complex (e.g. if the gain of the worst-performing of these 5 cryptos and these 2 ETFs is more than x percentage points higher than the gain of the S&P over the same period, then [Party] won.).

Your answer should identify the single most reliable indicator of whether a Republican or a Democrat was elected President. Assume for simplicity that the nominee of one of those parties was elected and that the outcome is not disputed as of Inauguration Day.

The bounty will either be winner-take-all (if one submission is clearly superior to all others) or split evenly if more than one are roughly equally great.