MANIFOLD
Will AOC be the nominee, and will she win?
4
Ṁ1kṀ1.8k
2028
4%
Is nominee, doesn't win
12%
Is nominee, does win
83%
Isn't nominee, doesn't win
2%
Isn't nominee, does win

Similar to my other market /Fion/will-gavin-newsom-be-the-nominee-an

This time I'm completely outsourcing resolution to other markets. The "is nominee" parts of the question resolve YES if this market resolves to AOC: /DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf The "does win" parts of the question resolve YES if this market resoles to AOC: /Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20 In the very unlikely event that one of those markets is resolved and then re-resolved, I will also request re-resolution. Any edge cases, pedantry, contested elections, untimely deaths... ask on the other markets. This one is simply for arbitration and bringing AOC's probabilities together in one place to help calculate her conditional odds of winning.

I will bet in this market.

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