How much will I make in loans interest by 22nd December 2024?
Basic
4
Ṁ64k
resolved May 22
Resolved
YES
>200
Resolved
YES
>400
Resolved
YES
>600
Resolved
YES
>800
Resolved
YES
>1000
Resolved
YES
>1200
Resolved
YES
>1400
Resolved
YES
>1600
Resolved
NO
>3000
Resolved
YES
>2500
Resolved
YES
>2750
Resolved
YES
>2200
Resolved
YES
>2000
Resolved
YES
>1800

I run Fion's Micro-Loans, where people can request a loan from me for very reasonable interest rates. (Currently 6% for a month, but may change in the future.)

Since launching in December, I think I have made about 70 mana, but if all outstanding loans are paid back on time, I'll be 223 mana up. How much will I have made one year after launch? [NOTE: I am not keeping these figures up to date. These are the figures at the time of market creation.]

Definitions: I will only count realised gains. If somebody takes out a loan for 1000 on 1st December, to pay back 1040 on 1st January, I don't get to count that 40 mana unless they pay back early (before market close).

If somebody takes the money and runs, that doesn't count as negative gains. In principle I'd like to include this, but it creates an incentive for people to steal mana from me, so I'd better not.

I won't take a NO position on any of these, since I guess in theory I could refuse to offer any more loans and force a NO resolution. I may bet YES.

I intend to keep running the loans for the duration of the market, but I don't promise to do so, and I don't promise to offer loans to everybody who requests them, but I do promise to not deliberately manipulate this market by refusing loans. If you look at my track record, I mostly give people what they ask for and I expect to continue to do so.

If you want a loan, head over here:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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We're up to 2758. Given that loans are now illegal, I'm going to close this market early by resolving the final (>3000) answer to NO.

There are no traders on this answer so hopefully no objections! Seems silly to keep the market going when all my outstanding loans are paid back (or the users have run) and new ones are not allowed.

For the record, I lost 180 mana in unpaid loans, thanks to two users. One disappeared; the other apologised (they forgot they had a loan and donated their net worth to charity). As made clear in the market description, these losses are not relevant to resolution but I thought it might be interesting to share.

Loans were a lucrative business back when they were allowed! Thanks to everyone who took part.

bought Ṁ10,000 >1200 YES

Thanks mostly to 1000 mana interest from @Tumbles's early repayment, I am now on 1209 in interest gained. Have resolved all the appropriate options to YES

bought Ṁ30 >600 YES

might be best to set the default sort to 'old'

@Tumbles Thanks, I didn't know I could do that! :)

@Fion Could I tempt you with a mega-micro-loan? My proposal is a 5k loan, and I pay you back 6k before the end of May

@Tumbles Sure, sounds good. Would you mind asking for it on the Micro-Loans bounty market? Helps me keep track.

Why did you pick 4%?

@KongoLandwalker I generally got the impression that 5 or 6% was the going rate, so I undercut that a little. I originally offered 5% but decided to lower it to attract more business.

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