I run Fion's Micro-Loans, where people can request a loan from me for very reasonable interest rates. (Currently 6% for a month, but may change in the future.)

Since launching in December, I think I have made about 70 mana, but if all outstanding loans are paid back on time, I'll be 223 mana up. How much will I have made one year after launch? [NOTE: I am not keeping these figures up to date. These are the figures at the time of market creation.]

Definitions: I will only count realised gains. If somebody takes out a loan for 1000 on 1st December, to pay back 1040 on 1st January, I don't get to count that 40 mana unless they pay back early (before market close).

If somebody takes the money and runs, that doesn't count as negative gains. In principle I'd like to include this, but it creates an incentive for people to steal mana from me, so I'd better not.

I won't take a NO position on any of these, since I guess in theory I could refuse to offer any more loans and force a NO resolution. I may bet YES.

I intend to keep running the loans for the duration of the market, but I don't promise to do so, and I don't promise to offer loans to everybody who requests them, but I do promise to not deliberately manipulate this market by refusing loans. If you look at my track record, I mostly give people what they ask for and I expect to continue to do so.

If you want a loan, head over here: