Will Western Alliance fail by end of May 2023?

Fedor

resolved Jun 1

Resolved

ALL

Will Western Alliance Bancorporation fail, have to be bailed out, or sold as a whole before May 2023?

Yes if it fails OR gets sold

No if it survives

Stock price here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WAL

Will end up on here if it fails: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

Wil resolve if an event caused it to fail in May, but the failed-bank-list is only updated a few days later.

As this market is objective, I may trade in it.

Economics

Financial crisis

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Michael	Ṁ98
2	Fedor	Ṁ55
3	Jack	Ṁ30
4	Pavel	Ṁ21
5	Nico D	Ṁ15

Fedor bought Ṁ7,800 NO from 1.2% to 0.4%

Michael bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 1.6% to 1.2%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 1.6% 🤖

Nico D bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 2% to 1.6%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 2% 🤖

Jack bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 4% to 2%

Jim bought Ṁ60 NO at 4%

Zer0_ -Infinity- bought Ṁ25 NO at 4%

Nico D sold Ṁ0 YES at 4%

JasperGo bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

RGui bought Ṁ100 NO at 4%

Kongo Landwalker bought Ṁ1 NO at 4%

Liam Hennessy bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Mihajlo Antić bought Ṁ50 NO from 5% to 4%

Alex Palcuie sold Ṁ1 YES at 5%

Michael bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

Jim bought Ṁ20 NO at 5%

Jim bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

Matthew Lichti bought Ṁ100 NO at 5%

diddy bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 5%

Cameron bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Wal Fisch bought Ṁ50 NO at 6%

Michael bought Ṁ150 NO from 7% to 6%

Jean Mro bought Ṁ50 NO from 8% to 7%

Jim bought Ṁ20 NO at 8%

Michael bought Ṁ200 NO from 11% to 8%

Ryo bought Ṁ4 YES from 10% to 11% 🤖

Certainty of Victory bought Ṁ1 NO at 10%

John Brinsley-Pirie bought Ṁ10 NO from 11% to 10%

Michael bought Ṁ100 NO from 13% to 11%

Winston Oswald-Drummond bought Ṁ25 NO from 14% to 13%

Manu Srinath Halvagal bought Ṁ20 YES from 10% to 14%

lxnd bought Ṁ50 NO from 11% to 10%

Romain Claret bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ2 YES at 11%

Sidd Hartha bought Ṁ100 NO from 14% to 11%

Michael bought Ṁ20 NO from 15% to 14%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ1 YES at 15%

Michael bought Ṁ50 NO from 18% to 15%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ10 YES at 18% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 15% (cancelled)

Michael bought Ṁ100 NO from 26% to 16%

Pavel bought Ṁ50 NO from 35% to 26%

Alex Palcuie bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 35%

Tom Bouley bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 30%

Nico D bought Ṁ5 YES from 29% to 33%

J bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 29%

Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ20 NO from 49% to 33%

GPT-PBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 49%

Related markets

Daniel

Will PwC Australia collapse in 2023?16%

Cade Mataya

Will any major EA Organization shut down by the end of 2023?75%

Austin

Will @MayMeta be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?92%

Jonas Vollmer

Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?64%

enemel

Will Ṁ still be exchangeable for cash by June 2023?99%

Cameron Johnson

Will we reach AGI by the End of 2023?3%

GeorgeVii

Will CEA announce insolvency before the end 2025?5%

Arun Jose

Will George R. R. Martin finish writing Winds of Winter by May 31, 2023?1%

Victor Levoso

Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?25%

Carson Gale

Will I move by end of 2025?64%

Jonny Spicer

Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?38%

juuuulia

Will Masterworks turn out to be a scam in 2023?41%

tigrennatenn

Will my spouse retire by June 1, 2023?21%

Wal Fisch

Will the 6-hour(or longer) WAN Show happen in 2023?29%

Bernardo Chrispim Baron

Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?51%

veritas delenda est

Will EY's US partners vote in favour of the proposed split of the auditing and consulting businesses before 30 June 2023?14%

Floffinou

Will it be known and widely accepted in 2023 that the union-closed conjecture is true?7%

Lars Doucet

Will the Unstable Diffusion team actually deliver their product as described before the end of 2023?49%

Vincent Luczkow

Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?51%

Heliscone

Will I die in 2023?21%