I observe that it seems to be an underrepresentation of female (including other non-male gender) accounts in manifold.
I wonder if manifold goes mainstream, will the ratio change?
I assume there is some way to measure the ratio. Otherwise, the range will be a reflection about what we believe is the ratio.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ16 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
@SirCryptomind Where did you get 29.6% non-male users from?
Oh or is that just what the market was at when it closed. Most other market's when the creator goes inactive they resolve based on the criteria not market price, or in this type of market is the precedent that it resolves to market price not the underlying thing we are betting on if the creator leaves?
@SirCryptomind To be more precise it's currently (209 + 77 + 44)/1112 = 29.6% as shown in the screenshot of https://hckr.pl/manifold-stuff/dating/ below
(209 +
@duck_master @SirCryptomind that data is for manifold.love accounts. This market is for manifold accounts at large.
@CarstenStolz I'll see what I can find. If duck_master doesn't first. But I mean, can you fault us when the data was close to what the market closed at!!! We can fix it, no worries.
@CarstenStolz I am just thinking, Manifold may not have this kind of data since unlike manifold.love there is no requirement to state what you identify as.
Also the creator states "assume there is some way to measure the ratio. Otherwise, the range will be a reflection about what we believe is the ratio."
So even if we do not have that data, it would resolve to what the market believed, which is essentially what the market resolved to.
@SirCryptomind Either way its a really low volume market and its resolving to a number so the mana at stake if it resolves to 30 or to like 15 is in the single digits for most traders. Thanks for all the inactive creator markets you've resolved and this resolution seems like a good enough one since manifold doesn't ask gender for people when people signup.
According to https://hckr.pl/manifold-stuff/dating/ there are 855 users total, and the non-male users are divided into 145 "female", 44 "trans-female", and 66 "nonbinary", for a total of 255 non-males (or a ratio of 255/855 = 29.8%), which is low but a lot higher than this market is.
it's low, and lower than we think if early results to my survey ( https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7 ) are any indication.
I've done a lot of community building work and I've found that it isn't a case of "we aren't attracting [group] because [group] is still too sparse" but that it takes sincere and active change in how a place brands and moderates itself to see changes to these kinds of things
@Stralor Depends on who "we" are - I personally expect Manifold to be 80% or even 90% men. It's like early Reddit vibes (but significantly less toxic, maybe because DMs not existing means I can't get "show me your tits lol" DMs...)
@evergreenemily I don't have a large enough dataset but let's just say /Stralor/survey-are-there-more-than-5-women won't resolve YES (yet)