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MANIFOLD
Next President of Argentina (2027 Election)
2
Ṁ350Ṁ154
2027
43%
Javier Milei
25%
Axel Kicillof
3%
Patricia Bullrich
3%
Juan Grabois
3%
Myriam Bregman
3%
Guillermo Moreno
3%
Luis Caputo
3%
Carlos Melconian
3%
Miguel Ángel Pichetto
3%
Other
3%
Victoria Villarruel
3%
Sergio Massa
3%
Mauricio Macri
3%
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

The next presidential election in Argentina is expected to take place in October 2027, unless it is called earlier due to extraordinary circumstances.

This market resolves to the individual who is inaugurated as President of Argentina following that election.

Argentina uses a two-round electoral system:

  • A candidate wins outright in the first round by obtaining either:

    • More than 45% of valid votes, or

    • At least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up.

  • If no candidate meets these conditions, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates, and the winner of the runoff becomes President.

This market includes the full election process, including any potential second round.

This market will resolve based on the candidate who is officially inaugurated as President of Argentina following the 2027 election.

  • If a second round occurs, the runoff winner determines the outcome.

  • If the election is not held or the result is not officially determined by December 31, 2027 at 23:59 ET, the market resolves to “Other”.

  • Interim projections, media calls, or unofficial claims do not count.

    Primary resolution will be based on official results from the Government of Argentina, specifically the Ministry of the Interior:

    https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior

    Secondary confirmation may include consensus reporting from major credible international and national news organizations only if official results are temporarily unavailable.

Market context
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