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"For this question to resolve as YES, either Israel must acknowledge responsibility for the attack, or a preponderance of credible journalistic outlets must report that Israel conducted the strike."

How are we doing wrt this criterion?

@BrunoJ Per NYT: “The Israeli military declined to comment on the strike, but four Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters, acknowledged that Israel had carried out the attack.” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/01/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/airstrike-in-damascus-kills-top-iranian-commander-iranian-media-say?smid=url-share

@BrunoJ At least four separate IDF sources have anonymously confirmed Israel was behind the airstrike and the US has directly informed Iran that they had no involvement at all.

@BrunoJ Note that the description of the video is the second place to note 11 deaths.

@weissz @BTE Thank you both. I have exited my considerable position 🥲

Reporting now that 11 were killed in today's strike.

@BTE Beat me to it by 3 minutes

@BTE

The toll includes "eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese

@mint It says nothing about the deaths needing to all be Iranian. The fact that there was an IRGC commander satisfied the target requirement, plus it is a consulate meaning it was technically on Iranian soil, so 10 is 10 it matters not one bit what their nationalities were. At least not according to the resolution criteria.

@mint the criteria say that 10 must die, but it does not say that all 10 must be Iranian! Iranian embassies ARE technically Iranian soil!

@BTE oh lol Jinx! haha

@benshindel 😂 🤣 I owe you a coke!

I can't believe this almost devolved into discussing the nationality of the casualties as the determining factor for whether "Israel made a military strike against Iran."

@FUTURESEARCH May I suggest not using arbitrary death numbers as criteria in the future? I think they're irrelevant factors in deciding whether a military strike has happened. Such criteria are more about the strike's target, precision, and immediate circumstances.

Israeli strike targeting Iranian commander in Damascus https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/01/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/airstrike-in-damascus-kills-top-iranian-commander-iranian-media-say?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

@weissz to be clear, this was in syria, so wouldn't resolve YES

@CarloAttubato “The attack must take place on Iranian soil or target Iranian state forces” [emphasis added]

@weissz oh my bad! (also i think the consulate may count as iranian soil anyway)

@weissz this wouldn't count even if the embassy is considered Iranian soil. The resolution criteria requires 10 deaths and I saw 7 deaths reported.

@mint Current count stands at 7-8 depending on source, with first responders still searching the rubble. Iranian soil or not is immaterial, as this was targeting — and killed — Iranian state forces. Not only that, this is in addition to the strike two months ago; cf. Shump’s comment summarizing that strike in relation to the resolution criteria: https://manifold.markets/FUTURESEARCH/in-2024-will-israel-conduct-a-milit#ZmJL0a7xTSg220umBtoa

@weissz i agree that the iranian soil part doesn't matter. But we definitely can't be "adding" up deaths from multiple airstrikes especially when they are months apart, the criteria makes it clear these are separate strikes.

@mint My point in re: earlier strike is just that I and others feel the prior strike already meets the resolution criteria; not advocating for summing the two (apologies if my wording of “in addition” was misleading there). My point in re: this strike is situation still evolving, final death toll will likely take a few days to be reported accurately across outlets.

@CarloAttubato It’s sure is Iranian soil!!

Disregarding the market criteria for a second, this is a military strike targeting Iran, and one that's most likely executed by Israel. I'd argue that it's a YES according to the spirit if the market, as long as Israel is confirmed as the attacker. However, I accept that the arbitrary number of 10 deaths must be reached for a resolution.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 40%.

doing nothing. My probability is 40%, market is 40%.