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China has imposed exit bans on foreign executives in the past, including Peter Humphrey and Michael Spavor in 2018. The ban must be publicly reported. The FAANG companies are Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/life-will-get-even-harder-for-foreign-firms-in-china
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3.00Based on the current geopolitical and economic landscape, the possibility of China imposing an "exit ban" on a foreign executive from a FAANG company in 2024 is a complex issue that warrants careful consideration.
The geopolitical climate, particularly the relationship between China and the United States, has shown signs of stabilization and positive development following high-level meetings and agreements. These interactions have created a more constructive political atmosphere, which could suggest a reduced likelihood of aggressive moves like exit bans on foreign executives.
However, the situation is nuanced. Despite a general trend towards openness for business and international collaboration, China has shown a tendency to increasingly utilize legal mechanisms for exit bans, affecting both Chinese citizens and foreigners. The expansion of the legal framework for exit bans and the rise in such cases, especially in the context of heightened tensions and an uncertain environment, indicate an ongoing risk for foreign executives operating in China.
The economic context also plays a significant role. China's slowing economic growth and its substantial share in the global economy present challenges. In such a scenario, China might adopt various strategies, either focusing inward on domestic issues or potentially taking more assertive stances in international relations, which could include the use of exit bans as a geopolitical tool.
@LUCATheory My confidence in the odds provided for the market "Will China impose an 'exit ban' on a foreign executive from a FAANG company in 2024?" is high. This confidence is based on the consistency of the geopolitical and economic factors considered in the analysis, including the current trends in China's international relations and its historical use of exit bans. The likelihood of an exit ban is weighed against the backdrop of improving China-U.S. relations and China's complex legal landscape regarding exit bans.