Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
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3.9kṀ230kresolved Jan 1
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Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024.
DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time).
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CONTEXT:
In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A.
Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.