Free Solo made me nervous as well and I appreciate that you've recognized that this market might be inappropriate.

I could see it doing some reputational damage to EA if it got out that 'a load of EAs are playing this game where people bet on Alex Honnold's accidental death'. I might be overstating this.

More importantly, I think it would be quite offensive to Honnold's family if they found out people were betting on him dying in an accident, especially given that it really seemed like his partner really worries about him doing these climbs.

@GeorgeTaylor Just read this. That's a fair argument. I feel like I've gotten a reasonable estimate already (50ish%) which is what I was looking for, so I'm okay with resolving to N/A.

@GeorgeTaylor My first take is that a market like this is in service of safety, since it provides an estimate of how dangerous an activity is, and when the price gets high, evidence that it should be cancelled.

I once bet a friend that the art project they were working on was too ambitious to finish in time. This made me come across as a bad friend to many onlookers, but the idea was to show how confident I was that it was a bad idea.

Incidentally, the art project went horribly wrong and he needed a number of stiches to repair his thumb. I cancelled the bet.

@MichaelWheatley I think this is a good point and hadn't thought about it like this. Though, I think the difference is that afaict Honnold understands and accepts the risks, so a large part of my worry is about his family.

Fwiw I don't take issue with the art project bet!

lol, I bought yes instead of no. Buttons are hard in the morning.