Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022
Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022
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160Ṁ1691resolved Nov 7
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Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022. Market resolves based on official reports, reputable reporting, and OSINT
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Earlier today, a U.S. contractor was killed and five U.S. service members and one additional U.S. contractor were wounded after a one-way unmanned aerial vehicle struck a maintenance facility on a Coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria at approximately 1:38 p.m. local time.
The intelligence community assess the UAV to be of Iranian origin.
That appears to meet all the resolution criteria.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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