NDA violation as determined by court ruling, binding arbitration, lawsuit settlement, or by Manifold taking down content in response to a cease and desist letter or other threat of litigation. (Content removed for mysterious undisclosed reasons will not count; we'll need confirmation of the letter's existence.)

Profit as determined per my best judgment. There must be strong evidence that they held a relevant market position on Manifold prior to the NDA violation. Posting the NDA-violating info on Manifold or the Manifold discord will be taken as strong evidence here.

(Please do not actually do this.)

Close date will be extended if there is reasonable grounds for suspicion that it might have happened. Post evidence in the comments prior to close if that is a thing that needs to happen.

Previously:

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Plan:

  • If no evidence is posted within a few days, resolve to No by default.

  • Encourage traders to post links or candidate events as evidence.