Will anyone violate an NDA in order to make a profit on Manifold by 2025?
8
56
190
2025
21%
chance

NDA violation as determined by court ruling, binding arbitration, lawsuit settlement, or by Manifold taking down content in response to a cease and desist letter or other threat of litigation. (Content removed for mysterious undisclosed reasons will not count; we'll need confirmation of the letter's existence.)

Profit as determined per my best judgment. There must be strong evidence that they held a relevant market position on Manifold prior to the NDA violation. Posting the NDA-violating info on Manifold or the Manifold discord will be taken as strong evidence here.

(Please do not actually do this.)

Close date will be extended if there is reasonable grounds for suspicion that it might have happened. Post evidence in the comments prior to close if that is a thing that needs to happen.

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The vast majority of NDA breaches will never be pursued in court.

@mqp do you have a better but still clear standard of proof we can work to? It was mainly chosen for simplicity on that front.

@mqp perhaps add "or Manifold receives a cease and desist letter or other formal request to take down the information in question", but I'm not confident Manifold would acknowledge such publicly to resolve this market.

@EvanDaniel I went ahead and added that criteria, though I don't expect it to matter much.

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