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Will a DHS agent die while on duty in Minneapolis before 2026-03-01?
7
แน€100แน€105
Feb 28
20%
chance

This would include ICE, CBP, or any other child agency.

Please don't make me regret making this market. I believe that tracking risks of escalation is valuable and important.

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Die of what precisely? Think it would be helpful to specify "while on duty, and of non-natural causes". It's too vague as it stands for me.

@hypercynical Any cause, including of injuries sustained while on duty.

@EvanDaniel so if an overweight ICE agent is walking down the street, while on duty, and has a heart attack, this gets resolved as a yes? Interesting, but no thanks. Thanks for the reply.

@hypercynical correct. I think the are a bunch of cases where the media environment becomes a giant mess and it's hard to resolve a question like this one, but "did they die" is not where I expect to find disagreement.

@hypercynical Put differently: I think this form of the question trades a little bit of including stuff that isn't what people want to bet on, for a lot of clarity around resolution. I think that's a good trade, but you're obvioulsy welcome to disagree and not trade here, or to make your own version of the market; having multiple similar variants of a market that intentionally try to capture different edge cases differently is often a very useful thing.

bought แน€10 NO

Hope no one dies.

@BlackCrusade I hope no one else dies.

bought แน€10 YES

With 3000 agents deployed and many of them walking on ice or driving, im willing to take those odds.

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