Mathematical surprises: How many of the 28 linked questions will resolve in an unexpected direction?
7
111
875
2099
19%
0
26%
1
26%
2
13%
3
9%
4-5
3%
6-8
1.7%
9-13
1.4%
14-21
0.7%
22+

How many of the following mathematical predictions will have surprising results? (That is, resolve other than as currently expected.)

N/A results are not expected for any of these.

This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly in accordance with the underlying markets.

/PlasmaBallin/is-the-first-hardylittlewood-conjec(Expected Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/is-the-second-hardylittlewood-conje (No)

/PlasmaBallin/are-there-infinitely-many-composite (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/is-levys-conjecture-true (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/are-there-infinitely-many-prime-tri (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/are-there-infinitely-many-cousin-pr (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/is-de-polignacs-conjecture-true (Yes)

/IsaacKing/is-artins-conjecture-on-primitive-r (Yes)

/IsaacKing/is-the-bunyakovsky-conjecture-true (Yes)

/IsaacKing/are-there-infinitely-many-balanced (Yes)

/IsaacKing/are-there-any-answers-to-brocards-p (No)

/IsaacKing/is-the-agohgiuga-conjecture-true (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/is-schinzels-hypothesis-h-true (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/is-dicksons-conjecture-true (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/are-all-fermat-numbers-squarefree (Yes)

/PlasmaBallin/are-there-infinitely-many-fermat-pr (No)

/PlasmaBallin/is-65537-the-largest-fermat-prime (Yes)

/BoltonBailey/is-there-a-5state-binary-tape-turin (No)

/BoltonBailey/is-the-20th-busy-beaver-number-inde (No)

/EvanDaniel/is-the-bb6-machine-the-kropitz-2022 (No)

/NcyRocks/is-the-riemann-hypothesis-correct (Yes)

/NcyRocks/does-a-smooth-navierstokes-solution (No)

/IsaacKing/does-p-np (No)

/NcyRocks/is-the-hodge-conjecture-true (Yes)

/NcyRocks/is-the-birch-and-swinnertondyer-con (Yes)

/NcyRocks/is-the-abc-conjecture-correct (Yes)

/BoltonBailey/is-graph-isomorphism-npcomplete (No)

/NcyRocks/will-the-yangmills-existence-and-ma (Yes)

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My general thoughts here:

  • The first ~half of the conjectures, up to and including "Is 65537 the largest Fermat prime", I very strongly expect to be true. Any of them being false would be a big shock, likely resulting in a fundamental change in my (and undoubtedly many others') outlook to number theory.

    • I guess it is conceivable that "by chance" there is a further Fermat prime, for example, but standard heuristics and numerical calculations suggest this to be extremely improbable.

    • (I'm less sure of the Agoh-Giuga conjecture, I don't know much about that)

    • Note that Schinzel's Hypothesis H would imply all of those other conjectures, with the exception of the ones on Fermat numbers and Agoh-Giuga (and the Levy conjecture only "morally", I guess). Many of the conjectures stand and fall together

  • I do not know much about Busy Beaver numbers. I do expect BB(5) = 47176870. I really do not know what to expect of the decidability of BB(20). I do not know about BB(6) either. As far as I am concerned, those could resolve either way.

  • The Riemann hypothesis falls to the category of "if this is wrong, I have been very fundamentally wrong about something". So does the question of P = NP.

  • Having no technical knowledge of the other Millenium problems, I fall back to "these are well-known conjectures that are expected to be true, that means that they are very likely true" and "if I did go and read about them more, I would very likely be as confident about them as I'm about the number theoretic conjectures, so better update now"

  • Don't know much about Graph Isomoprhism, but apparently it being NP-complete would collapse the polynomial hierarchy and the exponential time hypothesis would fail. This seems very unlikely.

  • Not an expert on abc-conjecture, but seems again likely true on the basis of being a famous conjecture.

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