Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
How much of Colorado will burn this wildfire season?
8
Ṁ1.1kṀ3.9k
2027
66%
> 467424 (2018 total)
63%
> 664403 (1% of land area)
55%
> 744120 (2020 total)
Resolved
YES
> 95342 acres (recent average)
Resolved
YES
> 222916 (2013 total)

2026 calendar year. Snowpack is historically low:

It will clearly be a dry summer. But will it also be hot? Just how bad will the wildfire season be?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Colorado_wildfires

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 YES

Has anyone ever been prosecuted related to a market of this type? Do they do them in real money?

By my count (Wikipedia + updates from Watch Duty app) we're now around 154k.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

@EvanDaniel Now 224283. That's only barely over the next threshold (222916), so I'll wait a bit to resolve, but I expect the number to go up, not down, since things are still burning and containment is low.

reposted

2026 Colorado wildfires - Wikipedia

66728 so far, by this count. Does not include some recent and/or smaller fires.

@EvanDaniel Now at 111013. Preliminary number, but exceeding 95 by some margin and things are burning.