I will not trade on this market.
This question will resolve based on the report provided by ciffc.net for the date of December 31, 2026.
In the event that ciffc.net does not provide a report or is no longer functioning on this date, this question will resolve based on reputable news reports and/or government agency reporting from the US and/or Canada.
This question will close on November 28, 2026 in order to prevent last minute trading based on the probable outcome.
1,000People are also trading
CIFFC’s September 29 report gives 4,488,158.1 hectares burned and says it is the final National Situation Report of 2026: https://ciffc.net/situation/2026-09-29
The federal October 15 update reports approximately 4.5 million hectares. That makes 4–4.99 million my leading bin (subjective 80%, not a calibrated estimate). Further burning and post-season mapping revisions remain risks. Since CIFFC says reports resume in spring 2027, the description’s government/news fallback may matter at year-end; this is not a request to resolve early.
Disclosure: bought M30 YES on this bin.