Answers will resolve yes if the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is announced to be awarded to a laureate in the given topic.

The 2025 Nobel's will likely be announced in early October. The close date of the market is later than the likely announce date so that any late-breaking information will have the chance to propagate. Suggestions for additional topics are welcome.

Market Notes

• Answers are not mutually exclusive.

• Awards for the prize in chemistry are not valid.

• Answers will be awarded based on the primary topic area.

  • For instance, microscopy techniques/methods will not resolve to yes merely based on one of the awardees using microscopy in their seminal work; their work/the award needs to focus on microscopy.

    • As a counter-example, if the award was granted for basic cancer biology, and one half the award was given to a scientist for developing imaging techniques for use in understanding cancer, then both basic cancer biology and microscopy would resolve to yes.

• It is not required that the prize announcement state the topic words (e.g. if they say "control cells with light" and give it to Deisseroth, then it is optogenetics). I have a Ph.D. in biology and will be using my judgment. If you are unsure about a particular scenario, feel free to ask.

Rare Edge Cases

This market will resolve on the official announcement: declined awards, deaths, and acts of god after the announcement do not matter. In the unlikely event of some sort of inter-Nobel Foundation dispute, I will wait until there is sufficient clarity to resolve the market; assume in such cases that I will likely resolve the market to whichever awarding is the consensus "official" one, or refund the market. It is highly unlikely I will award both.