Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Sir Demis Hassabis is officially announced as a recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, either individually or jointly.
The official source of truth is the Nobel Prize announcement page: https://www.nobelprize.org/
The market will resolve to NO if he has not been awarded the prize by the market's closing date.
Background
In 2024, Demis Hassabis was jointly awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry alongside John M. Jumper and David Baker for their breakthrough work on predicting protein structures using the AI model AlphaFold. Prior to receiving the Chemistry Nobel, Hassabis won the Albert Lasker Award for Basic Medical Research in 2023, which is widely considered the "American Nobel" in medicine. Due to AlphaFold's massive impact on drug discovery and biomedical sciences, some speculate that his work may eventually merit a second Nobel Prize specifically in the Physiology or Medicine category. Winning multiple Nobel Prizes is historically rare, having only been achieved by a small group of scientists.
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1,000Base rates for a second prize in a different science: it has happened once in 125 years (Marie Curie, Physics 1903 and Chemistry 1911; Pauling's second was Peace), and nobody has held both Chemistry and Physiology or Medicine. The Medicine committee has also never rewarded a tool without a demonstrated medical result to attach it to; the 2024 Chemistry citation already covered AlphaFold's structure prediction, so a Medicine prize would need AlphaFold-derived medicine to exist and prove itself. Isomorphic's first candidates enter the clinic by the end of 2026, so an approval would land around the early 2030s at the earliest, and the committee typically waits a decade or more after the clinical proof; this market closes at the end of 2033. The step the AI does not shorten is the in-vivo one, and for aging-related indications the fastest in-vivo evidence outside mice comes from dogs, which is where the first lifespan trials of such drugs are running; registry (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/
