Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial last into 2024? [dup of another]
resolved Jan 1

[Note: this is a duplicate of another market which is larger, so preferentially bet there]


I will resolve this one generally following that one's resolution, barring gross resolution problems.

Counting calendar days from start of the trial, regardless of everything.

If there is a retrial, it doesn't matter since this only relates to the first trial. If paused, the clock is still running until it's not active anymore. Any way the trial could end would count.

The timespan includes sentencing.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

This just became a death market.

@Ernie any reason why this market wouldn't be a perfect arb with the other one (resolving exactly oppositely)?

predicted YES

@JonasVollmer Now that sentencing has been included they are supposed to match (unlike the one about whether he’ll be convicted of a felony by 2024, which doesn’t include sentencing).

predicted YES

I bet on "the timespan includes sentencing" and put large limit orders down. I don't know how we can take that part out since it's a very important part

@MarcusAbramovitch yeah, I think that even if the decision to include sentencing was wrong, it would be bad to change the criteria again in such an important way. I just bet on yes after reading the resolution criteria, before checking the comments. I think it would be unfair for me to lose mana on this because the criteria reverse.

predicted NO

@EricNeyman People had bet both before and after I added inclusion of sentencing. So people would have a case if they bet before the change but wouldn't have after.

predicted YES

@Ernie Sorry, could you clarify whether you plan to change the resolution criteria to remove "The timespan includes sentencing" (or if you're not sure, how likely you think it is that you will)? I'm having trouble following the discussion since it seems like it spans across multiple Manifold pages.

I'm also having trouble parsing the sentence "So people would have a case if they bet before the change but wouldn't have after" -- could you restate it? If you mean that people who only bet after you added "timespan includes sentencing" don't have a case if you decide to revert the change, then I'm confused. (Shouldn't someone be able to read a market description and bet on it without having followed everything that's been happening with the resolution criteria?) But maybe that's not what you're saying.

predicted NO

@EricNeyman the plan now is to leave my claims about the length of the trial as they are now, including sentencing, as per the description, with no further change, and try to reimburse people for bets if they feel dissatisfied.

(For the first week or more these claims had no description at all, and were ambiguous, so people who bet then may have cause to complain)

predicted NO

Did this get added after the fact? "The timespan includes sentencing." It's possible I missed it, but its absence was the reason I bet no in the first place. I think the bet should be voided if the conditions did change.

predicted NO

@CateHall Sentencing is NOT a part of a trial -- it is a separate proceeding that occurs after the trial has concluded.

predicted NO

@CateHall there was a question about it yesterday. Because the largest volume market (not mine) includes sentencing too, I decided to include it so that across manifold there is consistency.

To your point I think there is pretty legitimate disagreement about whether it is included or not in the word "trial".

predicted NO

@Ernie What's their argument for including it? I don't think blindly following a decision by another market is the right way to make a decision.

To me, sentencing is very clearly not part of a "trial". FWIW, ChatGPT agrees:

"Does a trial include sentencing?

No, a trial determines guilt or innocence. Sentencing occurs after a guilty verdict.

"Are you sure?"

Yes, I'm sure. A trial focuses on establishing whether someone is guilty or innocent of a crime. Sentencing happens if the person is found guilty.


predicted NO

@Ernie There’s not “legitimate disagreement.” There’s confusion on this site about it. Having served as a law clerk in trials and sentencing procedures, and also just being able to google stuff, they are different things.

This is a material, post-hoc change in the terms of the market and the market should be voided as a result.

predicted YES

@CateHall Yeah, agreed. This seems like a pretty critical change and people will have now traded both with and without its inclusion.

predicted YES

@thecusp I personally think sentencing isn’t part of trial but I don’t think asking ChatGPT is the right way to learn that.

predicted YES


This is the market. I don’t know the author’s rationale for including sentencing.

predicted NO

@CateHall Could you please provide a link to a law site or academic summary of this issue? I searched and wasn't able to find much either way. For what it's worth, before I created all of these I did think that sentencing was included. I created a question and posted it on all my markets asking about this and didn't get any responses disagreeing. https://manifold.markets/Ernie/should-the-claims-about-sam-bankman

Also, in general I think that since sentencing involves the same lawyers, judge, etc a lot of people think that it is included.

predicted NO

@Ernie Here is the DOJ website: https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/sentencing

It was the first result that came up.

Sentencing usually involves the same lawyers and judges, but a trial is a proceeding in front of a jury where the jury decides the case. A sentencing proceeding is a post-trial proceeding where there is no jury, only a judge.

If a sentencing proceeding were part of the trial, the Sixth Amendment would apply to it and you would be entitled to a jury.

This is simply an issue of fact, not interpretation, and a sentencing proceeding is NOT a part of the trial.

predicted NO

@CateHall okay, your argument is really strong. I will collect opinions on how to handle this from this point and try to clarify it for this and other markets within 24h. In your case, what do you think would be fair? Do you just want to get out of the market and sell where you bought, or something similar?

predicted NO

@Ernie thank you! i would be happy to get out where i bought

predicted NO

@CateHall okay! If you sell now I'll managram you the difference. Unfortunately it won't fix your profit history but I'm afraid there's no way to fix that.

@Ernie I sold all of mine for a minor loss. No need to reimburse.

@Ernie Okay thanks it was a loss of 171

predicted NO

@Ernie thank you!