Should the claims about Sam Bankman-Friend's trial length include sentencing?
resolved Oct 12

Searches online show various results. Some include sentencing and some don't.

The largest manifold market includes sentencing: /RobinBruce/will-sam-bankmanfrieds-trial-conclu

YES = YES we should include sentencing if needed.

NO = NO we should consider the trial over as soon as a verdict is reached.

There are lots of claims on manifold which relate to this question, for example:



It would be nice if they all used the same interpretation.

For this market, I will take it as input and the place to discuss how my claims related to trail length should all resolve.

Ideally we can pick the most logical interpretation, but my main goal will be to match the convention chosen by other claims so that people using manifold to track this don't have to worry about differences between the various.

Please comment below with links.

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Hmm, this page plus the prior two steps in the justice process being "Post-trial motions" and "trial" make it clear that within this realm, trial definitely doesn't include sentencing.

What does everyone think? There are a lot of bettors in these related markets and we need to get this cleared up soon.

Okay, the fact that the main trial length includes sentencing has led me to decide that my similar claims will, too. Am updating them to include that now.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

I dunno what the norms are. To me, trials continue until sentencing. Will SBF be convicted is about conviction. Will the trial finish before X is about the whole trial, including sentencing.

Note that the main claim on trial length does include sentencing. That is a pretty strong push to including it for my claims, too, so that they make sense in comparison.

I think each should resolve consistent with it's own description. Where not specified in the description, trial should end at verdict.