based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml?list=open We only care about "standard open" or its future equivalent if there is one. The market will resolve based on the July 1st 2030 FIDE rating list (published June 30th 2030) as this list reflects Magnus's rating through the end of June 2030 or best similar. If he quits FIDE or still plays but isn't FIDE rated, that will be a NO at the due date.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (5 traders, as of Jul 1, 2026).

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?

Ṁ100Ṁ34

2030

53%

chance

ALL

We only care about "standard open" or its future equivalent if there is one.

The market will resolve based on the July 1st 2030 FIDE rating list (published June 30th 2030) as this list reflects Magnus's rating through the end of June 2030 or best similar.

If he quits FIDE or still plays but isn't FIDE rated, that will be a NO at the due date.

Market context

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