Will Magnus Carlsen, the world chess #1 since 2011, be ranked #1 in 2029.1.1?
39
2.7k
2028
34%
chance

The market will be closed on 2028.12.1 and the ranking is based on the FIDE World standard chess ranks, which you could check here:

https://ratings.fide.com/profile/1503014

You could check the links below for a quick description of him here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen

https://www.chess.com/players/magnus-carlsen

+ I added a M50 subsidy.

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predicts YES

What is the case for P<50%?

predicts NO

@TrevorAndersen Some base rate stuff (e.g. he'll be ~40, and there are only a handful of top GMs that age), but mostly it just seems like he doesn't enjoy playing classical chess: https://youtu.be/v3qN-ze_XZE

@TrevorAndersen Biggest problem is his interest in staying at the top. Lots of young superGMs looking to take his spot and not much sign of the dedication needed to focus consistently later in his life. I'm not betting on this one since I think the current prob is pretty close to what I would guess.