Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2024?
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resolved May 15
Resolved
NO

/Ernie/what-will-ilya-sursever-be-doing-on

^^^

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If ilya is "employed" ie has a contract and is paid but does nothing, no work, banned from office, can't ship code, doesn't attend work meetings, doesn't represent OpenAI publicly... Well to me that is verrrry similar to him not being with openAI.

We aren't here to bet about whether a lawyer filed a motion to invalidate a contract or whether bits in a bank db change. We're here cause whether or not ilya contributes to, help, supports, and dedicates his considerable mental power to OpenAI is very consequential for the future of AGI and possibly humanity, and there is very strong info suggesting he may not be doing that.

So I'm not going to resolve this on US law points regarding employment.

As of now, on the spectrum of

  • 1.0 - seems to be with openAI to

  • 0.0 - doesn't seem to be with them

He is about a 0.2

For:

  • Signed blog post

  • Not openly working with anyone else

  • No news that he has left

  • Linked in not updated (lol)

Against

  • Sam denied answering anything about him

  • Sam denied to confirm he's doing work

  • Nobody has seen him going into the office

  • Nobody seen him with anyone

  • No public appearances repping OpenAI as he did before, ie conferences and yt videos

  • No new work from him ie algos

  • Not on the new board

  • No leaks that he's done anything in the three months, staff mum. If he was working this wouldn't be the case most likely

bought Ṁ15 YES

According to The Information, Ilya is still in talks about remaining at OpenAI

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sam-altman-to-return-to-openai-board-of-directors

bought Ṁ126 NO

Am I missing something obvious or is this market identical to this market with the same creator?

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-ilya-sutskever-continue-at-ope

@jdilla hmm, yes, thank you. I've pointed that one to here and will adjust it so people change over.

Note that I resolved that as "off the radar" because that answer matches what we knew at the time more closely, and also matched more the conceptual goal of the question, that is, "who will Ilya be supporting here?" This question is somewhat more about whether there will be a "break"

As of now this would be very hard to resolve, since there are reports leading us to think that only some relatively inconsequential parts of his relationship to OpenAI have continued (i.e. a contract + salary) while the actual meaningful parts of it (contributing ideas, hiring, encouragement, attending meetings, reviewing ideas and code, public speaking on their behalf) either have clearly stopped or have been cast into doubt.

I hope that we find out much more about what's been going on which clears up any risk here. But I'm letting you guys know that I'm not simply going to observe "linkedIn says openAI? we good to YES" when there is contradictory evidence floating around.

Apparently there is some doubt on whether Ilya is even coming in to work these last few months. Actual status of him as being "at" openai isn't as secure as previously though.

predicted NO

Alright, seeing a lot of speculation on twitter today after recent reporting about Ilya. Clearly there's a good chance he leaves. Where will he go next?

Why would this be true if Sam and Greg are reinstated? Investors will want him gone yesterday, and based on Sam's potential reinstatement, investors seem to have strong influence. And with strong opinions on superalignment, Ilya himself could easily defect to Anthropic or Deepmind, which both seem to align more with his values. For most other orgs and people, I'd say the recently-ousted would definitely remove Ilya, but I'm going to guess that Sam goes to bat for Ilya to stay, Ilya is removed from the board but stays on superalignment, and eventually moves to Anthropic or Deepmind (probably Anthropic) since his influence is lessened.

predicted NO

openai is nothing without its people moment

I think he will stay. I don’t think employees speaking out in support of Sam means that they don’t support Ilya. I am confident Ilya had good intention. He did not turn into a villain over night. They will hash it out. They will talk and they will be stronger than ever as a team. Atleast this is the timeline I want to live in so I will manifest it 😂

bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 53%
bought Ṁ100 YES from 57% to 66%
bought Ṁ250 of YES

@bessarabov this is not kind

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Soli Your original text was "I think he will stay." And I think that such comments are useless. This is as everybody who made YES bet also placed a comment "I'm betting YES". This is dumb and stipid.

If you put your full comment starting from the very beginning I didn't not made such a rude bet with reply.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 67% to 68%
predicted YES

@bessarabov yes this makes sense 🤍 (I was having fun)

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