Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
Basic
14
586
2026
55%
chance

Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.

Counts

  • Crash

  • Lost

  • Captured

  • Disappeared

  • Stolen by adversary

Does not count

  • Unusable plane due to bugs

  • Repossessed by creditors

  • Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access

  • We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional

  • Sold or transferred to ally or other

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Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year