MANIFOLD

Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025

Ṁ1kṀ4.3k

resolved Jan 29

Resolved

YES

ALL

Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.

Counts

Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary

Does not count

Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other

Market context

Military

F-35

Aviation

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@Ernie pls resolve

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 91% order

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/f35-fighter-jet-crash-alaska-air-force-base/

Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year