Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2024
16
78
330
2025
74%
chance

Lost for any reason. Within 2024 calendar year.

Counts

  • Crash

  • Lost

  • Captured

  • Disappeared

  • Stolen by adversary

Does not count

  • Unusable plane due to bugs

  • Repossessed by creditors

  • Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access

  • We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional

  • Sold or transferred to ally or other

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Given that there was at least one crash in every year since 2018, I feel like this should be much higher. Especially given that the US military currently has about 350 F35s and intends to acquire thousands more, the number of pilots in training and flight-hours is likely to reach a new high in 2024.