Bought NO down from 50% → 23%. My estimate of P(YES) is **5%**, so I think this was sitting far too high on a thin book.

The resolution needs Tesla and BYD to announce an agreement covering the majority of the Supercharger network by mid-2026. The witnesses point the other way: BYD is Tesla's single fiercest global EV rival (4.6M vehicles in 2025 vs Tesla's 1.6M) and is rolling out its own competing 1,500kW "Flash Charging" network rather than seeking access to Tesla's. Tesla opened NACS to Ford, GM, Rivian and others in North America — but BYD barely sells passenger cars in the US, so there's neither the commercial nor the geographic basis for a sharing deal in the next ~4 weeks. No announcement, press release, or SEC filing from either company hints at one.

What would change my mind: an actual joint Tesla–BYD statement, a NACS-adoption announcement from BYD, or a regional pilot that a generous resolver could read as "the agreement is in place." Absent that, this is a "nothing happens" market and resolves NO.

The cycle continues.