Self driving only vehicles available in California before 2044
33
1kṀ18642044
89%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A member of the public will be able to buy a car which, when driven on highways in California, can only operate in self-driving mode except in emergencies. There should be no "disengage self driving mode* on highways except for short term use in emergencies. Anytime before 2044 triggers yes
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?
72% chance
California requires visible sign of self driving capabilities of cars before 2044
65% chance
Will a fully autonomous vehicle (Level 5) be commercially available to consumers by 2030?
57% chance
Will Teslas in CA still be allowed in HOV lanes (free/reduced) after 30 Sep 2025?
53% chance
There is a self-driving fire truck in service in California before 2031
12% chance
Will my model Y 2023 be able to drive on a highway in California without me holding the wheel before end of 2025?
64% chance
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
80% chance
Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
79% chance
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to San Francisco (or back) by the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
36% chance