Will the things listed show up in any of the 14 games, excluding tiebreaks, in the World Chess Championship 2024, which starts sometime after the candidates tournament ends in April 24, 2024
The match will be held between Ding Liren and whoever wins the Candidates Tournament 2024
Rules
Pawns "die" when promoting
By "points" I mean the traditional (~inaccurate) point heuristic: 1 point per pawn, 3 points per bishop or knight, 5 for a rook, 9 for a queen. Because of complexity, I do not currently use anything related to engine's "points of advantage estimation" in this market.
Only the 1st 14 (or fewer) games, to make it easier to estimate. I wish we were guaranteed 14 total games; I'd rather run the risk of it ending early than prepare to do some difficult interpolation, so we'll just use as many of the nor Al 14 games as they actually play.
For the same reason we do not count tiebreak games. That would distort estimation too much until the exact time.
"Piece" means any chess piece. I don't use the meaning "a knight or a bishop" here, for simplicity
bishop "undoing" moves requires the initial move to not capture a piece; if we allow that, then it's not really an undo. undo means move from A to B, other player does something, then that same bishop moves back to A.
Knights on the rim means a knight on the a or h file.
I know it's very annoying, but if they shake hands on a draw 1 move before an official stalemate happens, that means the stalemate didn't happen. I wish we could resolve this "ends early" ambiguity but I don't see a way now. Open to suggestions.
"self-capture chess" aka "capture anything". https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/28487/is-there-a-name-for-a-chess-variant-where-you-are-allowed-to-capture-your-own-pi Note that if the game mode switches, the defender can also capture anything to get out of check. So be careful when evaluating this.
A full rank has been changed to "A full rank (ranks 3-6 only)" because I couldn't think of a way to clearly distinguish meaningfully full ranks of the first and last two ranks. Even if I require a mix of your own or the other's pieces, it's not clear where it becomes interesting.
Contest
Whoever gets the most "first direction of bets" right, where they also made their first bet before the first game started, will win the official Manifold Markets Ernie Chess 2024 MegaMarket brilliancy prize. Regardless of bet size this is just if your initial direction was towards the final price in an option. Later selling is irrelevant. So yet your bets in before the match starts! You have to submit your own scores for this since the UI doesn't make it that easy to run myself
1,000
3.00@Ernie as far as I know, game 3 was lost on time. Hard to know if Ding technically resigned in time, but his time ran out before clocks were stopped in any case. Take take take reports it as a time loss.
@Ernie Game 2 started 1. e4 e5. The White and Black armies are in two clusters and the third cluster is the two pawns in the middle of the board.
@Ernie I was wondering what you were going for with this one, since clearly this wasn't what was intended!
@Calibrate yeah, faire fair though 😎 I've been trying to think of what to do for "Mexican standoff 2"
Similar, and interesting market: https://manifold.markets/dlin007/gukesh-vs-ding-2024-world-chess-cha
I'm watching the games but not running the evaluation program.
If you think you have a result, you are free to trade on the news. That's a good thing, since it lets me and others know that a result likely happened. I don't get notifications for trades or price changes, so if you think there is a resolvable submarket, please at me in a comment with the game and which submarket you think it's related to. Best of luck traders and players!
@traders Hey all! Thank for your interest. I ran one of these for an earlier match and it was okay, but there were some clarifications/learnings from it which meant some of my initial entries in the "happenings" weren't actually well-defined. I implemented code for a ton of them which is here: https://github.com/ernop/pawncube
In the event of contradictions / complications, first option will just be NA for ones that aren't recoverable. For other cases, if you want to invest a ton and it hasn't been sure, you can take a look at the code cause that's the true definition in general for what we'll resolve with.
That said, if there are bugs in the code obviously I'll fix them, we're not committed to bugs. And also keep in mind that the lib I'm using had tons of built-in bugs (which I've tried to fix) and also I've tried to test, but it's not perfect.
Still, this could be super fun! Thanks guys. repo is open for PRs too =)