Will the things listed show up in any of the 14 games, excluding tiebreaks, in the World Chess Championship 2024, which starts sometime after the candidates tournament ends in April 24, 2024

The match will be held between Ding Liren and whoever wins the Candidates Tournament 2024

Rules

• Pawns "die" when promoting

• By "points" I mean the traditional (~inaccurate) point heuristic: 1 point per pawn, 3 points per bishop or knight, 5 for a rook, 9 for a queen. Because of complexity, I do not currently use anything related to engine's "points of advantage estimation" in this market.

• Only the 1st 14 (or fewer) games, to make it easier to estimate. I wish we were guaranteed 14 total games; I'd rather run the risk of it ending early than prepare to do some difficult interpolation, so we'll just use as many of the nor Al 14 games as they actually play.

• For the same reason we do not count tiebreak games. That would distort estimation too much until the exact time.

• "Piece" means any chess piece. I don't use the meaning "a knight or a bishop" here, for simplicity

• bishop "undoing" moves requires the initial move to not capture a piece; if we allow that, then it's not really an undo. undo means move from A to B, other player does something, then that same bishop moves back to A.

• Knights on the rim means a knight on the a or h file.

• I know it's very annoying, but if they shake hands on a draw 1 move before an official stalemate happens, that means the stalemate didn't happen. I wish we could resolve this "ends early" ambiguity but I don't see a way now. Open to suggestions.

• "self-capture chess" aka "capture anything". https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/28487/is-there-a-name-for-a-chess-variant-where-you-are-allowed-to-capture-your-own-pi Note that if the game mode switches, the defender can also capture anything to get out of check. So be careful when evaluating this.

• A full rank has been changed to "A full rank (ranks 3-6 only)" because I couldn't think of a way to clearly distinguish meaningfully full ranks of the first and last two ranks. Even if I require a mix of your own or the other's pieces, it's not clear where it becomes interesting.

Contest

Whoever gets the most "first direction of bets" right, where they also made their first bet before the first game started, will win the official Manifold Markets Ernie Chess 2024 MegaMarket brilliancy prize. Regardless of bet size this is just if your initial direction was towards the final price in an option. Later selling is irrelevant. So yet your bets in before the match starts! You have to submit your own scores for this since the UI doesn't make it that easy to run myself

• Update 2024-12-12 (PST): The final score will be calculated as 10% of the maximum material advantage seen in any final position across all games, not the sum of material advantages. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2024-13-12 (PST): For social distancing, the orthogonal distance refers to the manhattan distance between pieces. (AI summary of creator comment)