Will the things listed show up in any of the 14 games, excluding tiebreaks, in the World Chess Championship 2024, which starts sometime after the candidates tournament ends in April 24, 2024
The match will be held between Ding Liren and whoever wins the Candidates Tournament 2024
Rules
Pawns "die" when promoting
By "points" I mean the traditional (~inaccurate) point heuristic: 1 point per pawn, 3 points per bishop or knight, 5 for a rook, 9 for a queen. Because of complexity, I do not currently use anything related to engine's "points of advantage estimation" in this market.
Only the 1st 14 (or fewer) games, to make it easier to estimate. I wish we were guaranteed 14 total games; I'd rather run the risk of it ending early than prepare to do some difficult interpolation, so we'll just use as many of the nor Al 14 games as they actually play.
For the same reason we do not count tiebreak games. That would distort estimation too much until the exact time.
"Piece" means any chess piece. I don't use the meaning "a knight or a bishop" here, for simplicity
bishop "undoing" moves requires the initial move to not capture a piece; if we allow that, then it's not really an undo. undo means move from A to B, other player does something, then that same bishop moves back to A.
Knights on the rim means a knight on the a or h file.
I know it's very annoying, but if they shake hands on a draw 1 move before an official stalemate happens, that means the stalemate didn't happen. I wish we could resolve this "ends early" ambiguity but I don't see a way now. Open to suggestions.
"self-capture chess" aka "capture anything". https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/28487/is-there-a-name-for-a-chess-variant-where-you-are-allowed-to-capture-your-own-pi Note that if the game mode switches, the defender can also capture anything to get out of check. So be careful when evaluating this.
A full rank has been changed to "A full rank (ranks 3-6 only)" because I couldn't think of a way to clearly distinguish meaningfully full ranks of the first and last two ranks. Even if I require a mix of your own or the other's pieces, it's not clear where it becomes interesting.
Contest
Whoever gets the most "first direction of bets" right, where they also made their first bet before the first game started, will win the official Manifold Markets Ernie Chess 2024 MegaMarket brilliancy prize. Regardless of bet size this is just if your initial direction was towards the final price in an option. Later selling is irrelevant. So yet your bets in before the match starts! You have to submit your own scores for this since the UI doesn't make it that easy to run myself
Related questions
@traders Hey all! Thank for your interest. I ran one of these for an earlier match and it was okay, but there were some clarifications/learnings from it which meant some of my initial entries in the "happenings" weren't actually well-defined. I implemented code for a ton of them which is here: https://github.com/ernop/pawncube
In the event of contradictions / complications, first option will just be NA for ones that aren't recoverable. For other cases, if you want to invest a ton and it hasn't been sure, you can take a look at the code cause that's the true definition in general for what we'll resolve with.
That said, if there are bugs in the code obviously I'll fix them, we're not committed to bugs. And also keep in mind that the lib I'm using had tons of built-in bugs (which I've tried to fix) and also I've tried to test, but it's not perfect.
Still, this could be super fun! Thanks guys. repo is open for PRs too =)
@Ernie Okay, here it is - the duplicated version for Ding's games during Tata Steel. Let's see what'll happen!
https://manifold.markets/Ernie/what-will-happen-during-ding-lirens
In order to evaluate this, I'm almost definitely going to have to write a bit of code. If so I'll share it out.
Hey chess fans. Is there an upcoming tournament I can clone this for, or maybe just for one player's games in a tournament? That would be fun, to bet on it as the tournament went on and we watched the review videos on Youtube, be they from ChessNetwork, Amagmator, kingscrusher, gotham chess, hikaru, nemo, or GM Ben Finegold!
@Ernie There is Tata Steel in Wijk An Zee in 2 weeks, which is one of the most prestigious classical tournaments of the year (but Magnus is not playing sadly). And then there is chess 960 world championship sometime in February.
@Weezing Yes, tata steel looks like a perfect situation.
There are so many games, though. It would be a LOT of work to calculate all of these for all the games.
Hmm, seems most reasonable to focus on Ding's games - given that he is still theoretically defending the championship, and he's probably the most likely person to have full & long review videos on all his games of.
@Pazzaz I usually defer to the Rosen score website for definitions and examples. I'll look it up there later.
@TheBayesian I take the liberty to answer when i didn't make the question because the alternative is silly (it would resolve to like 99.60%, which would make it an uninteresting option)
@TheBayesian yes, thanks all. I'll fix the terminology. Exanplr;: if the shortest game actually played is 23 moves then this will resolve to 77%.