What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? weird promotions, pawn cube, castle mate?
Basic
79
áš19k
2025
96%
Anyone is ever ahead by 1 point or more in the overall match?
95%
10% every time a pawn makes the first move in a game, -10% every time a knight does
92%
A pawn promotes
92%
+10% every short castle, -5% every long castle
91%
Daniel Naroditsky is one of the live commentators
89%
King in a corner
89%
Opposite side Castling game
84%
Rook takes a Queen
84%
Both kings are on the wrong side of the board (the half they didn't start in)
84%
10% for each draw
82%
Pawn takes a Queen
78%
1% for each move in the longest game
76%
En passant refused
76%
If game were immediately switched to "self-capture chess", one side would have mate in 1
74%
5% for every dead bishop, -1% for every dead pawn, final positions
70%
2 knights on the rim (of any color) at the same time
68%
Anyone is ever ahead by 2 or more points in the overall match?
65%
At any point in a game, 2 bishops and 0 knights on one side oppose 2 knights and 0 bishops. There can be other pieces.
65%
10% for each black win
65%
En Passant capture

Will the things listed show up in any of the 14 games, excluding tiebreaks, in the World Chess Championship 2024, which starts sometime after the candidates tournament ends in April 24, 2024

The match will be held between Ding Liren and whoever wins the Candidates Tournament 2024

Rules

• Pawns "die" when promoting

• By "points" I mean the traditional (~inaccurate) point heuristic: 1 point per pawn, 3 points per bishop or knight, 5 for a rook, 9 for a queen. Because of complexity, I do not currently use anything related to engine's "points of advantage estimation" in this market.

• Only the 1st 14 (or fewer) games, to make it easier to estimate. I wish we were guaranteed 14 total games; I'd rather run the risk of it ending early than prepare to do some difficult interpolation, so we'll just use as many of the nor Al 14 games as they actually play.

• For the same reason we do not count tiebreak games. That would distort estimation too much until the exact time.

• "Piece" means any chess piece. I don't use the meaning "a knight or a bishop" here, for simplicity

• bishop "undoing" moves requires the initial move to not capture a piece; if we allow that, then it's not really an undo. undo means move from A to B, other player does something, then that same bishop moves back to A.

• Knights on the rim means a knight on the a or h file.

• I know it's very annoying, but if they shake hands on a draw 1 move before an official stalemate happens, that means the stalemate didn't happen. I wish we could resolve this "ends early" ambiguity but I don't see a way now. Open to suggestions.

• "self-capture chess" aka "capture anything". https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/28487/is-there-a-name-for-a-chess-variant-where-you-are-allowed-to-capture-your-own-pi Note that if the game mode switches, the defender can also capture anything to get out of check. So be careful when evaluating this.

• A full rank has been changed to "A full rank (ranks 3-6 only)" because I couldn't think of a way to clearly distinguish meaningfully full ranks of the first and last two ranks. Even if I require a mix of your own or the other's pieces, it's not clear where it becomes interesting.

Contest

Whoever gets the most "first direction of bets" right, where they also made their first bet before the first game started, will win the official Manifold Markets Ernie Chess 2024 MegaMarket brilliancy prize. Regardless of bet size this is just if your initial direction was towards the final price in an option. Later selling is irrelevant. So yet your bets in before the match starts! You have to submit your own scores for this since the UI doesn't make it that easy to run myself

Get áš1,000 play money
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Why is this closed? Leave it open until it happens

@traders Hey all! Thank for your interest. I ran one of these for an earlier match and it was okay, but there were some clarifications/learnings from it which meant some of my initial entries in the "happenings" weren't actually well-defined. I implemented code for a ton of them which is here: https://github.com/ernop/pawncube

In the event of contradictions / complications, first option will just be NA for ones that aren't recoverable. For other cases, if you want to invest a ton and it hasn't been sure, you can take a look at the code cause that's the true definition in general for what we'll resolve with.

That said, if there are bugs in the code obviously I'll fix them, we're not committed to bugs. And also keep in mind that the lib I'm using had tons of built-in bugs (which I've tried to fix) and also I've tried to test, but it's not perfect.

Still, this could be super fun! Thanks guys. repo is open for PRs too =)

King in a corner
bought áš1,000 King in a corner YES

Firouzja moved Kh1, resolves YES

bought áš20 King in a corner NO

@benshindel This market is for the championship not candidates?

sold áš500 10% for each draw YES

@EliLifland ah fork me

@EliLifland I was searching for tagged markets under the Candidates tag... đ­

@benshindel same same same same ahh

@Ernie Could you remove that tag to avoid future confusion? lol

@Bayesian yes sorry bout that

Made a similar market for the openings

FYI definition changed here, will return bets if needed

Wip code to evaluate this https://github.com/ernop/pawncube

Okay, I've got some code that is working to evaluate the positions. This is what the output looks like so far, based on some test games I've downloaded. Will release it publicly later today

Whoah........ is there no longer a limit of 100 answers?

^^^^^RUBBING HANDS^^^^^^^^^

@Ernie Okay, here it is - the duplicated version for Ding's games during Tata Steel. Let's see what'll happen!

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/what-will-happen-during-ding-lirens

In order to evaluate this, I'm almost definitely going to have to write a bit of code. If so I'll share it out.

Hey chess fans. Is there an upcoming tournament I can clone this for, or maybe just for one player's games in a tournament? That would be fun, to bet on it as the tournament went on and we watched the review videos on Youtube, be they from ChessNetwork, Amagmator, kingscrusher, gotham chess, hikaru, nemo, or GM Ben Finegold!

@Ernie There is Tata Steel in Wijk An Zee in 2 weeks, which is one of the most prestigious classical tournaments of the year (but Magnus is not playing sadly). And then there is chess 960 world championship sometime in February.

@Weezing Yes, tata steel looks like a perfect situation.

There are so many games, though. It would be a LOT of work to calculate all of these for all the games.

Hmm, seems most reasonable to focus on Ding's games - given that he is still theoretically defending the championship, and he's probably the most likely person to have full & long review videos on all his games of.

Must a center pawn cube be a single color or can it consists of both black and white pawns?

@Pazzaz I usually defer to the Rosen score website for definitions and examples. I'll look it up there later.

I'm thinking about duplicating this for the entire candidates tournament, all games

...Isn't this true of the board at the start? Or do you mean at the end of the game

@Marnix ... And all pieces on the board are on the same color square. I'll clarify, thanks.

100-(1% for each move in the shortest game) kinda reads like 100 - (.01 for each move in the shortest game), is that what you mean?

no, it's 100 - (1 * [move in shortest game])

alternatively, 100 - (# of moves in the shortest game)

@TheBayesian I take the liberty to answer when i didn't make the question because the alternative is silly (it would resolve to like 99.60%, which would make it an uninteresting option)

@TheBayesian yes, thanks all. I'll fix the terminology. Exanplr;: if the shortest game actually played is 23 moves then this will resolve to 77%.