Anywhere anytime for any reason. No due date
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@FM good question, raising it in discord - I was thinking it would be nice if there was a site-wide consensus rather than every prigozhin related market resolving separately. Will get back to you. Facts strongly suggest yes but I also want to avoid a situation where some markets go YES easily while others wait. I will get back to you.
@StrayClimb Because a similar thing happened before and then Prigozhin turned up and was not dead?
Nobody has actually confirmed his death. Not Russia, not America, no one.
A historical record that there was a consensus that it was unlikely?
An opportunity for people who claimed they predicted it to show a track record of their beliefs?
@NickAllen Is there some value to knowing whether this was an unexpected event, a truly shocking outlier or something that wasn’t much of a surprise?
Especially if the narrative after some events (not necessarily this one) ends up being that an event was either more shocking or more inevitable than it really was?
@NickAllen both fair points. Someone shared the term "time-washing" the other day; this prevents people from pretending they saw it coming.
Even people who were holding 'yes' shares before: looking at their betting history on other questions it's easy to tell whether they just got lucky and have a lot of high leverage low chance bets or whether they really did focus on this as being mispriced.
@NickAllen If even 1% of such markets spiked up before public release of info, it would be useful.
ARE YOIU KIDDING ME
Probably around 1 in a million of the Russian population dies in plane crashes.
Scraped the cause of death for every leader in Wikipedia's list of people who took power by coup (362 total). Only one of them (Muhammad_Zia-ul-Haq) seems to have died from a plane crash. The words "plane crash" are mentioned in 8 of the articles, where they mostly talk about related people dying in plane crashes. I might have badly scraped the websites but I think the number is very likely below 10/362. It might be much higher for people who fail at coups, but I doubt that it's more than a factor of 2 difference, so I think this should be trading at less than 7%. Might be missing something big, so I'd love for @StrayClimb to provide more evidence that it's common.
@higherLEVELING This is the most familiar plane crash ending to a coup I know of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_571 Lin Biao against Mao in 1971
@StrayClimb interesting. hey. i got a question for ya.. why do you set the resolve date so far away for your questions? i like the questions you ask and would be participating in them, but the resolve date is too far away. it doesn't make sense to park mana in there and have to wait till 2040 to resolve,
I think you'd get more people in with a resolve date set at most a year. I only looked through your questions cuz u had the one question about 50+ active markets and 20 users by end of june. I
@higherLEVELING thanks for the feedback. For cases like this it will resolve early since he is pretty old. I can see there could be a version scoped to five years or so, too, although I think it's pretty unlikely he makes it that long
@StrayClimb Im probably wrong about the resolve date being that important since there are questions with plenty of traders on them with resolves in 2099. Its probably just my preference. But ya my request is more questions that resolve sooner than later please.