This market is about whether Shawn Fain will say "The strike is over" when, and only when, all or part of the workers involved in the strike have resolved the dispute by formally accepting, ratifying, etc. a new labor contract. He will say this, or something like it, to indicate that this in his mind, this final step after union acceptance was the reason for the strike ending; so something like "now that the agreement is finalized, the strike is over!" or "congratulations on ending the strike by ratifying this deal and making it final", etc. Overall, something that indicates he considers this final approval itself to BE the transition state.
And not just that - but he will ALSO not definitively say "The strike is over" until such an agreement is finalized.
This would show that he think the strike wasn't over until this point. If he says the strike is over before then, this resolves NO. And if he doesn't say something indicating the strike is over at that point, this also resolves NO.
So, if you think that according to the UAW the strike is already over, please prove me wrong with links and I'll admit my mistake. Because if the UAW thinks the strike is already over now, you won't expect him to say "it ended today" upon ratification.
This claim applies either to all the companies or to any individual one in which the union- company relationship has gone back to normal due to new agreement. IE if the GM workers ratify it first and he then says that this ratification ended the strike (the GM vs UAW 2023 part), it means YES since it shows his thinking. If they all ratify and finalize it on the same day, and he says this ends the strike, that's YES too. On the other hand if he says something like "the strike ended X days ago and now finally weeks later we have an agreement" that would be immediate NO.
1,000
1.00@Shump I've lost most of my investment already, so I am still hoping fain will issue some kind of talk or conclusion to summarize his view of the strike. I have a few weeks left til due
@Ernie I hope you mean it would qualify for a NO. It says the deals ended the strike before the ratification.
In fact it seems that the announcement suggests he (or the UAW in general, which I assume counts here) things the strike ended a while ago:
https://manifold.markets/Ernie/does-a-labor-strike-end-when-the-wo#RXGk8ltB0DPCuW9l14PB
@EvanDaniel none of the recent update videos from Fain say the strike ended, even after workers returned to work. I'm still waiting for something from Fain.
@Ernie Gotcha, so you're not including UAW statements as stuff from Fain? Looking for something more specific from him?
@EvanDaniel @Ernie specifically said "About this claim specifically, " I'd like to wait a bit longer to see if UAW or Shawn Fain comes out with anything about the result here," so I think he has to acknowledge the UAW statement about the result that Domer pointed out
@EvanDaniel I mean, my main argument which everyone ignores is that UAW videos never said the strike is over. IF it's been over for 2 weeks that's hecka weird.
I'm waiting for a fain video to see how he plays it.
if he doesn't produce one at all, that's a failure on my part and I would lose this, obviously, since I claimed he would reveal that he thought this.
@EvanDaniel to the image downthread from UAW, it mentions "stand up strike" which is a term indicating the "strike action" meaning of strike. In many other cases, UAW has directly indicated that even after workers returned to work, the strike was not over, but merely paused/suspended.
I am not denying that UAW uses the "strike action" meaning sometimes. I'm asking for acknowledgement that they also use the "entire dispute" meaning, as does wash post (posted upthread by me) and other outlets. This unclarity is the reason I chose the latter meaning for interpretation, and why I'm hoping that we get something really clear from UAW so we get an undeniable answer.
Here is UAW chairman Jeremy Navarre acknowledging a different strike ending at the tentative agreement like a sane person.
@Ernie So, the strike is over and I couldn't find any mentions of Shawn making any such announcement. Did I miss anything? How much time does he have to say anything before this resolves NO?
@Shump really strange I don't see clear news about the actual final vote totals or a summary of what happened. Wikipedia says the strike is over, but the links it provides are paywalled + also don't actually say it's over or that the contract is ratified; some of them just point to initial single-factory vote results, without mention of the overall vote or ratification etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/business/uaw-ratify-contract-general-motors.html
For example this article says that GM has been approved but that the ones with Ford & Stellantis "appear headed for approval"
About this claim specifically, I'd like to wait a bit longer to see if UAW or Shawn Fain comes out with anything about the result here. Either way it goes, it should be pretty obvious.
So chirpy in my comment sections on other markets but total crickets here eh guys? I'll just keep the price at 90%.
If y'all are right and "the strike is over" why don't ya bet me down. Are you afraid Fain will post on YouTube and say "today, by ratifying this agreement, you, the UAW workers, have ended the strike" and your claims will fall flat?
@Emanuele if the strike is already over you can get a large profit here, cause there's no risk that Shawn Fain will say "with the ratification today, our strike is over" (since you think it's already over). You can make 10:1 odds from me.
If you don't bet I would be slightly confused since in your rating of me you seem very clear that you believe it's already over.
I believe this is the perfect double crux. https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/double-crux
If, on the day of signing, Shawn Fain head of UAW says "finally, today the strike is over" I think people who disagreed with my criteria from the below market discussion must admit I made sense.
And if Fain says nothing of the kind, I will be forced to admit I was wrong or misunderstood the situation. Do you agree?