This market is about whether Shawn Fain will say "The strike is over" when, and only when, all or part of the workers involved in the strike have resolved the dispute by formally accepting, ratifying, etc. a new labor contract. He will say this, or something like it, to indicate that this in his mind, this final step after union acceptance was the reason for the strike ending; so something like "now that the agreement is finalized, the strike is over!" or "congratulations on ending the strike by ratifying this deal and making it final", etc. Overall, something that indicates he considers this final approval itself to BE the transition state.

And not just that - but he will ALSO not definitively say "The strike is over" until such an agreement is finalized.

This would show that he think the strike wasn't over until this point. If he says the strike is over before then, this resolves NO. And if he doesn't say something indicating the strike is over at that point, this also resolves NO.

So, if you think that according to the UAW the strike is already over, please prove me wrong with links and I'll admit my mistake. Because if the UAW thinks the strike is already over now, you won't expect him to say "it ended today" upon ratification.

This claim applies either to all the companies or to any individual one in which the union- company relationship has gone back to normal due to new agreement. IE if the GM workers ratify it first and he then says that this ratification ended the strike (the GM vs UAW 2023 part), it means YES since it shows his thinking. If they all ratify and finalize it on the same day, and he says this ends the strike, that's YES too. On the other hand if he says something like "the strike ended X days ago and now finally weeks later we have an agreement" that would be immediate NO.