What traits will Harvard's next permanent president have? MegaMarket (101 traits to bet yes/no on!)
144
24k
2025
99%
Announcement will happen June 1 2024 or later
97%
Has PhD
97%
Under 80 yo
97%
Under 60 yo
97%
Under 75 yo
97%
Born in the USA
97%
Is an American citizen
94%
Under 65 yo
91%
Has written and published a book either academic or non
91%
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
91%
A member of the Democratic party; if no party, has donated more to Democrats
90%
Will have a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
85%
Has a Harvard postgraduate degree
84%
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
81%
Speaks a foreign language
80%
Will be straight
79%
Is married
73%
Went to a private high school
71%
Will give an inauguration speech in 2024
69%
Will mention Claudine Gay by name in his or her inauguration speech

We currently know nothing about the next president, and may not for a while. But, it's interesting to think about what type of traits he or she may end up having.

Market will not close but some claims will close earlier than others. See below on timing.

Links

Citations

Diversity points system, 1 point for each which they have openly discussed and mentioned as issues of discrimination and concern

  • ADOS

  • African

  • Woman

  • Elderly

  • Disabled

  • Overweight

  • Mental Health Issues

  • Native Peoples

  • Non-White

  • Refugee

  • LatinX

  • LGBTQ2SI+

Accents

  • I consider Elon Musk to have an accent.

  • Claudine Gay and Vivek Ramaswamy

  • This is hard but the line is basically whether is start seriously wondering where they're from, or maybe that a movie would use that way of speaking for an American and nobody woke question it

Notes on timing

  • Once the name is announced and 24 hours have passed I'll begin resolving items related to identity. I won't resolve ones such as "they refuse or end up not accepting" until later though.

/Ernie/who-will-be-the-next-president-of-h

/Ernie/stephen-pinker-is-president-of-harv

/Ernie/harvards-admission-refusal-number-g

/Ernie/will-a-proposal-for-who-should-be-t

Claudine Gay was also involved in railroading this prominent Harvard Economist:

/Ernie/roland-fryer-multiple-choice-market

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ60 Answer #aeb84a53f1e5 YES

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ25 Answer #0dfe8b5d7e0d NO

The Diversity Points options are mutually exclusive right? If they have 3 points, the 1 point option resolves NO?

When does this resolve?

I'm surprised people are so sure of the PhD! I've been trying to add easier options to beat it but no luck. What do you all think?

Wow, Harvard are really arrogant. Just pointing out that nearly NOBODY refuses admission. Shameless.

https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics

Oops…made a similar market