Who will be Harvard University's next permanent president?
7.4k
2025
29%
Other
28%
Alan Garber
13%
John Manning
7%
Danielle Allen
5%
Emma Dench
3%
James E Ryan
2%
George Q Daley
2%
Tamar S Gendler
2%
John B King Jr.
1.8%
Francis J Doyle III

Either permanent, or interim/temporary only in the case the person has the role for at least a year.

This starts after the current president is out and the next person has the role.

Submit your own answers to make mana. No due date.

Whoever submits the eventual right answer also gets 300m prize from me

Also, see /Ernie/next-permanent-president-of-harvard where we guess about what this person might be like

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Good atlantic article which contains some historical info on Harvard's presidency

https://archive.is/X9rrh

I wonder if the corporation & board have the guts to pick a real scholar again? Doubt it, but one can always hope!

@Ernie It's pretty positive on Danielle Allen - available at just 4% above! https://www.theatlantic.com/author/danielle-allen/

Hey all - many people are asking to wait all the way until the announced person assumes the job for resolution. I'm okay with that, so that's how we'll run this. Given the situation, there may not be a long wait, anyway. Thanks for your comments!

So, last time it took six months to find the person and then six months for her to assume office.

I'd like not to wait that long. Proposed: this will resolve 48 hours after the name is announced, providing everything is on track. If there is super serious opposition to the name, I reserve the right to wait a bit longer to confirm if they'll get through the initial period. But if it's calmed down and there's still five months to go, I'd rather just resolve then, and not lose the time and mana. Sound good? Any thoughts?

bought Ṁ20 of Other NO

@Ernie why not just wait to be sure, what's the rush?

@JuJumper once the name is announced and everything seems settled it may still be a while until they take office. If it's months, people don't like their mana to be tired up that long at 99%

@Ernie
1. there are loans to untie mana
2. are you going to re-resolve this question if something changes and the person in question does not in fact become a permanent president?
3. there is no one option anywhere near 99% now
4. if you are going to resolve based on announcement, then please change the title and the body of this market accordingly, and then it will all be ok

@JuJumper I’m also of the opinion that you should wait until everything is confirmed—maybe not until they’re inaugurated but at least until it’s perfectly clear they’ll take office.

@NicoDelon my concern was that in Claudine Gay's case, there was a six month gap between announcement and taking office. Perhaps it'll be faster this time.

I agree loans should be enough, but they're not. The pressure to return mana around EOY is very high despite that. I'm trying to figure out what people want here.

@Ernie I am strongly against resolving markets on future events before said events happen. I believe it defeats the whole purpose behind prediction markets system. It also erodes trust, I already feel like I can't trust you. I believe many people will share this feeling. If you want to resolve when the announcement is made, the market should be changed to reflect that.

@Ernie I feel like your suggestion erodes trust in this particular market and the whole ecosystem. I think many people will share similar feeling.

@Ernie @Ernie

I feel like your suggestion erodes trust in this particular market and the whole ecosystem. I think many people will share similar feeling.

@Ernie my comment does not seem to get through

@Ernie So be it. Biden will be the nominee but he hasn’t been formally nominated yet and so we can’t resolve the market. Anything can happen between the announcement of a new president and their taking office as new president.

@JuJumper ah looks like a bug - I think pages sometimes don't refresh with your new comment. Is it all right if I hide the later ones? I definitely think you opinion is important, and want to take into account the view of the bettors. I'm not going to rush anything.

@Ernie sure

Article with some interesting information about prior searches https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/1/3/alan-garber-interim-president/

/Ernie/next-permanent-president-of-harvard also bet here for fun times

@Ernie I also believe it's wise to hold off on any decisions until there's absolute certainty. It might not be necessary to wait until the inauguration, but definitely until it's unmistakably clear that they will assume office.

Claudine Gay

After Sam Altman I feel like we should be aware of all possibilities

bought Ṁ300 of Answer #eaf52be1011a NO

@Joshua lollll

@Joshua has @EmmettShear gotten a call from Harvard yet?

You guys can submit answers right?

bought Ṁ10 of Answer #f99b0924d743 NO

@Ernie Yes.