If you could subsidize people to become subsidized traders in your markets, how much would you pay? Pick the highest price you'd pay.
"Subsidized trader" means manifold allowing any real user who is interested, once per market, to pick Y or N and receive 50M worth of shares, which they hold til market close. They can't sell out, but at any time they can switch to holding the the opposite position, based on the current market price. The market is still a real one and anyone can still purchase shares of it. The price moves normally.
"Real users" are some subset of all users, chosen to be less likely to be bots. Ie they've ever paid, or they're trusted, or they're an old account. Imperfect anti botting.
The shares wouldn't be given to any random real user, but instead would be an option for users who could choose to join or not, or by their demonstrated interest. (How much you pay to get thezvi to hold a position in something? Do you think his intuition is valuable, let alone having your market show up on his lifetime p/l, current holdings page? Would he be able to stop himself from giving some thought to it?)
Please pick the price you'd actually pay for one trader. If you think you'd never pay for this, ask if you would consider it worthwhile to have ten random manifold people in a thin market you know about, to bet against, to follow news about your market, to improve the prices of (or worsen & profit from) for 1 USD cent. If so, then you're free to pick 0.001$ (or higher). Also, keep in mind that if you've created a market in ten minutes, and it gets three traders, what is your actual ROI? If your free time wage is say 60$/hour, then you're effectively paying 10$/3 traders already (minus personal benefits of the time). For me, adding 10$ more to get ten more traders, even if random, is clearly net positive (otherwise I should quit writing and judging markets already)
Example: say a market is heavily traded at 50%. A user takes the subsidy offer and picks Y so gets about 100 shares of Y. There is slight slippage up to 50.1%. The user can't sell these but they show up as profit or loss in value. Sometimes later the market rises to 90%. The user now thinks this is too high and selects to flip position. The system advised them they could flip to hold 900N shares (since the system would sell holding now for 90M and then enter NO with all that)
Tldr as a creator, how valuable is it to have active participants in markets for you? (Potential source of manifold revenue)
1,000I'd get a 10 mana new trader bonus plus the tiny bit of extra information from their prediction, 10 mana converts to $0.01 I think, so very slightly more than that before it stops being worth it
@TheAllMemeingEye to sell this I'd eliminate that. I'll update the description. My goal is to figure out if creators would value some clear USD => mana => sink function which would also be able to make money for manifold
@nikki those were nearly all clearly non "real users" though. New accts, never bought mana, didn't have wide positions. Even just the class of ppl who attended manifold is a group which could be derived.
It's mutually beneficial - in general I don't think. They'd resent being given free positions, and at least for me I'd love traders to join in. So in trying to find a way to productize it. (In this example manifold takes 50% off the top)